Turkey Massing Troops For Possible Attack On Northern Iraq

I wonder if the U.S. now regrets allowing Turkey into the NATO alliance in 1952. At the time, the U.S. saw Turkey as a buffer against the Soviet Union. But has Turkey really been a close ally of the U.S.? Not really, considering events of recent years. During the first part of the Cold War (as we are now entering a second phase of that War), Turkey was also concerned about its own security. It feared a possible attack from the Communists to the East and wanted to be affiliated with NATO as a deterrent against Soviet aggression.

It appears that Turkey has outlived its partnership with NATO. It no longer enjoys a cozy relationship with Europe or the U.S. The tension between Europe and Turkey has intensified in recent years, due to the European fear and reluctance on the question of allowing Turkey into the EU. The Europeans have thrown up every roadblock possible to kill Turkeys effort to join the EU club. The Europeans have been split on the issue of Turkish membership, and have been particularly concerned with the situation between Greece and Turkey over Cyprus. But there seems to be more opposition in Europe than support for Turkey. The Europeans are also concerned (although they won't admit it) about allowing such a large Muslim dominated country into the EU. EU membership for Turkey would essentially mean a shared currency, increased Trade, more cultural exchange, and more open travel. The Europeans are afraid of having a flood of Muslims pouring into all parts of the Continent.

Now tensions are heating up between Turkey and the U.S. This has been brewing for years, and now appears to be coming to a political, economic and possibly a military confrontation. There will be a diplomatic/political confrontation for sure. The neo-conservative maniacs who run the U.S. are upset about the lack of Turkish support for the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Turkey refused to allow its territory to be used as a platform for a U.S. assault on Iraq from the North.

Turkey has also been one of the loudest critics against the U.S. occupation of Iraq. Turkey has been concerned that the U.S. invasion of Iraq would lead to some kind of independent Kurdish State, something that Turkey has said that it could never accept. Turkey sees such a development as a strategic threat. According to the Turks, this would only encourage Kurdish separatists residing in Southern Turkey.

In recent days, Turkey has complained about U.S. warplanes drifting into its airspace. This kind of event would normally go unnoticed between two NATO countries (at least in the media). Such disputes or concerns are usually taken care of through NATO... not discussed in the media or taking the form of a formal diplomatic complaint (which is what Turkey did). This just highlights the rift that is growing between the two countries.

Now it appears that Turkey is preparing for its own military action against Iraq. Over the last several weeks, Turkey has been massing huge amounts of troops and equipment along its border with Iraq. The amount of forces suggests that Turkey has plans to launch attacks in Northern Iraq against PKK rebels- a Kurdish militant group that has been Turkey's arch enemy for years. The PKK is known to operate in Kurdistan (or Northern Iraq).

It is unclear how NATO would handle possible military action by Turkey against Kurds in Northern Iraq. NATO has never faced such a dire situation between member States, although Greece and Turkey have been at odds for years. And many of the member States have been at odds with one another from time to time. But nothing like this.

In theory, the U.S. could easily eject Turkey from Iraq through military force and could crush any future military aggression. But I just can't wrap my head around that scenario. The U.S. would pay a huge political, diplomatic, and military cost if it chose to go that route. Turkey would be thrown out of the Western/European sphere, into the sphere of the Anti-U.S. Muslim world almost overnight.... and even possibly further into the Iranian sphere. I don't know if the U.S. could afford to do that. On the other hand, the Iraqi government is diabolically opposed to allowing Turkish military action in Kurdistan. And if the U.S. allowed Turkey to have its way, it could threaten the survival of the Iraqi government, because Kurds might pull out and and even declare independence, and they would claim the oil fields in Northern Iraq in the process... All of which would be a nightmare for both the U.S. and Iraq.

But because of rich stupid white men in Washington DC, the U.S. finds itself in this impossible and perilous position. A position that would be a lose-lose for all involved. The lack of moral standing in the World, particularly in the Muslim World, and the lack of diplomatic skill... and a lack of diplomacy as a whole has left the U.S. in this position.

Hopefully a third country or third-party diplomats will come to the rescue and save the U.S. one more time. Over the past several years the U.S. has courted disasters of various kinds due to its arrogance and its position as a bully in the world, but someone or something always seemed to save the U.S. at the last moment. I am extremely doubtful that the U.S. can save itself from these kinds of situations.... it does a great job of blundering its way into these problems, but it is not very good at getting itself out.

It is clear (and has been clear for several years) that the armor of Americas Empire is beginning to crack.