I hinted several months ago that Palestine was headed for a Civil War between Hamas and Fatah, the two major factions now battling for political & military control. Hamas and Fatah now seem to be engaged in all out civil war... The two sides have been engaging in heavy battles in Gaza over the past two weeks, and it finally ended with Hamas militants routing Fatah. However Fatah and the Palestinian authority remain in control in the much larger West Bank. This is more bad news for Palestine, and reduces any hope for any kind of viable Palestinian State. It also raises the risk of a regional conflict. Any attacks on Israel from Gaza will be blamed on Syria and/or Iran as these two countries are seen by the West as being the main supporters and suppliers of the radical Hamas movement. This could lead to a wider conflict in the future.
The Palestinians are now split between President Abbas & his Fatah faction (seen by many as moderates) and the more Jihadist Hamas. Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, can expect more poverty and suffering under Hamas, due to sanctions. Hamas has set itself up for a big failure... because they must now deliver. They won't be able to do that without working with Abbas and Fatah, because President Abbas still controls the purse strings. But I don't think that they are really concerned about delivering for the people. That idea assumes that Hamas will honor democratic principles. It seems to me that they would be willing to rule by dictatorship and force their own brand of fundamentalism onto the Palestinian people. They might try it at least... but I am not so sure that the Palestinian people will go for that. But Hamas will be in no hurry to return control back to the legitimate internationally recognized Palestinian Authority. In fact, I think they may try to hold on to power for a long time and may not be willing to honor elections. But only time will tell for sure.
The Palestinians are now split between President Abbas & his Fatah faction (seen by many as moderates) and the more Jihadist Hamas. Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, can expect more poverty and suffering under Hamas, due to sanctions. Hamas has set itself up for a big failure... because they must now deliver. They won't be able to do that without working with Abbas and Fatah, because President Abbas still controls the purse strings. But I don't think that they are really concerned about delivering for the people. That idea assumes that Hamas will honor democratic principles. It seems to me that they would be willing to rule by dictatorship and force their own brand of fundamentalism onto the Palestinian people. They might try it at least... but I am not so sure that the Palestinian people will go for that. But Hamas will be in no hurry to return control back to the legitimate internationally recognized Palestinian Authority. In fact, I think they may try to hold on to power for a long time and may not be willing to honor elections. But only time will tell for sure.
It also looks bad for the Palestinians because they are killing their own people. In doing so, it brings the whole Palestinian struggle into question. How can you call for peace, and expect the World to respect your cause when you are killing your own? That went through my head almost immediately when the new fighting began to flare up. It doesn't look good to the rest of the world, a world in which Palestine relies on for about half of its funding. With Hamas controlling Gaza, the region will continue to be a source of Islamic radicalism for the entire world, just as it has been for the last 40+ years.
But I think (and hope) Hamas' power will not extend beyond the Gaza strip.
Another strange twist to all of this is that you could actually see cooperation between Israel and Abbas.... as Israel will be interested in keeping the moderates in control.
But prepare for more ruthless attacks in Gaza by Israel (perhaps even with a wink and a nod from Fatah). The U.S. has already been funding and supplying one side in this civil war.... which is reminiscent of the proxy wars of the Cold War.... in this case it is a proxy war between the U.S. and Syria/Iran. Yet another civil war where the U.S. has been behind a lot of the wickedness from the beginning..... just like in Iraq. Part of the problems in Palestine stemmed from U.S. (and Israels) attempts to weaken the Palestinian authority. By sabotaging the Palestinian Authority, the U.S. unwittingly helped to popularize Hamas.... basically making it easy for them to gain a strong political foothold that they continue to have today. That's been one of the problems with arrogant, ignorant U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. doesn't understand the cultures, the people, the land, the religion, or the politics of the countries that it wants to bully. It's hard to defeat your enemies when you don't understand them. This is what led to the disaster in Iraq to a large degree. A lack of understanding of the people, the cultures, etc of other nations. Now the U.S. finds itself in one of the biggest fiasco's that it has ever been in. And now the maniacs in the White House are setting the stage for Iraq to become Supersized so to speak. Not satisfied with the disaster that they already have, the neo-conservatives seem to be on a path to spread the disaster to other parts of the Middle East. Iran is a top candidate.
But I think (and hope) Hamas' power will not extend beyond the Gaza strip.
Another strange twist to all of this is that you could actually see cooperation between Israel and Abbas.... as Israel will be interested in keeping the moderates in control.
But prepare for more ruthless attacks in Gaza by Israel (perhaps even with a wink and a nod from Fatah). The U.S. has already been funding and supplying one side in this civil war.... which is reminiscent of the proxy wars of the Cold War.... in this case it is a proxy war between the U.S. and Syria/Iran. Yet another civil war where the U.S. has been behind a lot of the wickedness from the beginning..... just like in Iraq. Part of the problems in Palestine stemmed from U.S. (and Israels) attempts to weaken the Palestinian authority. By sabotaging the Palestinian Authority, the U.S. unwittingly helped to popularize Hamas.... basically making it easy for them to gain a strong political foothold that they continue to have today. That's been one of the problems with arrogant, ignorant U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. doesn't understand the cultures, the people, the land, the religion, or the politics of the countries that it wants to bully. It's hard to defeat your enemies when you don't understand them. This is what led to the disaster in Iraq to a large degree. A lack of understanding of the people, the cultures, etc of other nations. Now the U.S. finds itself in one of the biggest fiasco's that it has ever been in. And now the maniacs in the White House are setting the stage for Iraq to become Supersized so to speak. Not satisfied with the disaster that they already have, the neo-conservatives seem to be on a path to spread the disaster to other parts of the Middle East. Iran is a top candidate.
But I am just as afraid that Pakistan may be next, with all of the internal problems there (a potentially unprecedented nightmare for obvious reasons). I have been trying not to think about a coup where Pervez Musharraf is taken out and radicals take control. But I have had nightmares about it.
Hear A Roundup of the Weeks Events
Listen to a Roundup of This Weeks Events From On Point Radio. Main Topics: The Middle East and The Continuing Justice Department Fiasco. Jack Beatty gives solid analysis as usual.
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