Where does the Republican Party stand in 2009? Don't get me started on black Republicans. I certainly appreciate independent thought; thus, people have the right to be wrong. For instance, Angela McGlowan, an Ole Miss grad, is one of Fox News's darlings. She can be counted on toe the party line on conservative movements du jour such as ACORN. Yet, for the most part, her beliefs are sensibly grounded in conservatism, a theory I respect, but do not admire. Needless to say, my views are on black conservatives range from mystifying disbelief to disappointment. I'll return to this topic another day.
McGlowan can reasonably be separated in vindictiveness and thought from the likes of Glen Beck, whom even Republican-conservative stalwart senator Lindsay Graham has taken to task for his over-the-top comments.
Other Republicans simply jumped the shark. A notable example occurred in 2002 when Georgia senator Max Cleland, a triple-amputee from injuries sustained fighting in Vietnam was caricatured as unpatriotic by George Bush, Karl Rove and Saxby Chambliss. Cleland has now written a book about his life in politics. I can't wait to read it.
Despite the pathetic examples of Glen Beck and Saxby Chambliss, many observers anticipate a Republican comeback in 2010. The logic? A surge in partisan identification for Republicans. Predictably (it happens with all presidential party's when the presidential honeymoon ends), some independents are put off by Obama's agenda and they make the knee-jerk reaction to "identify" with the opposition party.
Listen to me people. These month-by-month shifts are meaningless. Long-term identification does not drastically change quickly. It can't. Long-term trends show Democrats doing well because people under the age of 35 are dramatically more Democratic than Republican. Minorities are more Democratic than Republican. Those groups (youth + minorities) are growing demonstrably faster than the older, southern, whiter Republican Party.
Of course, it's all relative. History tells us the GOP needs a huge surge for 2010 success along the lines of 1994. I'm betting against it.