Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Bradley Effect Rears Head In New Hampshire - CLinton Wins

With 79% of Precincts reporting:

Clinton: 39%

Obama: 36%

No other explanation for it.

3 comments:

Brian said...

That's one reason not to put too much stock in Polls.

In a fair system, Polls should not be publicized before elections at all. Polls can impact turnout... for all candidates involved...even the so-called front-runner because people may get too comfortable.

But I always said that what happened in Iowa does not necessarily translate elsewhere.

Neither candidate in this media circus was the best for the Dems...and we will find that out in a General Election. The most that the Dems can hope with either of these two is to get 1 or 2 Purple States and pray that they can hold on to the Blue States.

It's going to be a mess Rikyrah. The Dems may not get into the White House because the media was allowed to hijack the election process..for ratings purposes. Now you are left with 2 unelectable candidates. It doesn't matter which one wins... the Dems are screwed with either one. And I said that it remains to be seen if voters there actually followed through when they actually got into the voting booth. They may say one thing in public, or when polled...but do something completely different in that booth when no one is looking.

I would say that I will laugh when if the Democrats lose...but it's not going to be funny at all. This Country is in a life and death struggle... and Democrats are playing games with unelectables.

The Dems can just pray for Florida, Ohio and/or Missouri.... Clair McCaskill will do what she can here... but Missouri is deep Purple. It will come down to the St. Louis Metro vote (always does). And McCain is doing good in Ohio in head to head matchups..leading Obama in the State by a big margin and I believe ahead of Hillary as well.

It's a bad sign when the Republican is leading right off the bat. Usually you want the Dem running neck and neck in early surveys....or even a couple of points behind. The urban vote provides a 1-3 point invisible bump for the Democrat (which doesn't show up well in Polls).

One good sign that seems to be in the Dems favor is turnout... they have been smashing records... The Republicans are not excited yet. However, the nomination of Obama or Clinton will unite the Republican Party and provide plenty of motivation for them to work hard and turn out in large numbers as well. That's another problem with Obama and Clinton.

There is a lot riding on what happens this year... one of the most historic years in recent decades.

Political Realm said...

I was ready something today that had an interesting note about this. It showed that Obama's polling wasn't really off--he finished with about what he had averaged. In the end, Clinton got a major boost, but from where? It seems as though Edwards collapsed and Clinton gained--especially among women and blue collar workers.

If you look at the cross-numbers, Obama still did very well among white men. It would seem unusual for the Bradley effect to only work on women there.

Political Realm said...

And I wouldn't be so down on the Dems, AI. The numbers so far do show one thing--Dems are far more excited and turning out in greater numbers/winning the independents in two states that split in 2000/2004.