Monday, September 15, 2008

Obama's Race May Be a Growing Issue In Michigan & Beyond

The issue or Race is leading to a tough fight for Obama in Michigan, as well as other States. Certainly the Kilpatrick debacle didn't help (which is why Idiot Kilpatrick should have been aware of the big picture and left the stage quietly, months ago).

Obama is also struggling in Pennsylvania & Minnesota - States that had been a given for Democrats. Ohio, Missouri, Florida, and Virginia? Those may be lost at this point.... it would take a miracle for Obama to win one of the four. Right now, Obama has to concentrate on stopping the bleeding so that he can hold on to States that had been seen as safe for Democrats - Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota.

If he can hold on to those... he will likely have to beat McCain in November by winning Colorado and New Mexico.

Things could change in six weeks... hopefully they will change for the better. I keep hoping that Obama has finally bottomed out and will rebound at any moment... but that's not what the data is telling me. So far, the bottom is continuing to fall.
From a logic standpoint, I can't make any sense of it. But when you factor in the sickness of America and look at the whole picture, I understand it from a functional, technical point of view. But from a common sense point of view, it is driving me crazy because I can't wrap my head around it.

The impact that race is having on this election is even more than I had imagined. It's making me sick to my stomach.

One bright side might be the fact that Kerry also struggled a little in Minnesota and Pennsylvania in the polling (although not so much in Michigan). But then again I can't compare Kerry's performance to Obama's....and any "pundit" or "expert" who does is wasting their time... you can probably throw many of those conclusions out. Why? Because Kerry had the benefit of being White. Obama faces many more political and social challenges and the voting might be hard to predict in many of these battleground States. Kerry didn't have to worry about racist and xenophobic propaganda, didn't have to worry about the Bradley Effect, etc.

I am hoping that the debates will give Obama a small boost before the election... but then again, we saw John Kerry destroy George W. Bush 3 times in a row...and Bush still won. We are dealing with an electorate with a low aptitude for politics, for the issues, and are generally ill informed. So the debates may not necessarily help Obama. This is another factor that is driving me crazy.

Meanwhile, Obama is losing the propaganda war.... the Republican machine is destroying him so far. And the Democrats seem clueless, even though THEY KNEW about the Republican playbook ahead of time. How could they not be prepared? One big problem for the Democrats is that they don't have a propaganda machine or at least they don't have anything that comes close to the infrastructure and information network that Republicans have.

1 comment:

Black Political Analysis said...

It certainly will. A lot of this, I believe, is still fallout from Clinton voters that have not come on board.