The Gore Sweepstakes

Despite the best efforts of a draft movement that has aired more television advertisements than Rudy Giuliani, Al Gore's decision not to run for the presidency in 2008 appears to have held firm. The chief political questions surrounding the former vice president have now become if, when, and who he will endorse.

Gore has seemingly answered the first question already. In an interview with 02138 magazine, Gore suggested that he would endorse this cycle, saying, "Odds are that I will [endorse]." It remains unclear, however, whether Gore will endorse before the contest is essentially over or wait until the spring to line up behind the presumptive nominee. He has offered few hints on the timing of his endorsement, but it does seem correct to presume that Gore will give his support when it will mean something (read: before the primaries). We doubt he would have addressed the topic in the first place if he wasn't planning to make an announcement that would have significant impact.

So just when will Gore endorse? In the previous cycle, his surprising endorsement of Howard Dean came on December 9, 2003 (about 45 days before the 2004 Iowa caucuses). Assuming he does endorse again, I would expect a similar timeline to unfold (note that there are 50 days remaining until the 2008 Iowa caucuses). By endorsing in early December, his support should offer its maximum value--it will be close enough to the caucuses and primaries that most voters will be engaged, but it will also be early enough to avoid the overshadowing Christmas season when voters tune out politics.

What does a Gore endorsement mean? Sure, his last endorsement didn't bring Howard Dean the nomination, but this is a different time and the circumstances have changed considerably. Since losing the electoral vote in 2000, public perception of Gore has shifted. Following the loss in 2000, many Democrats blamed the Gore for being a stiff candidate with a mismanaged campaign. Today, Gore is an Oscar, Emmy, and Nobel Peace Prize winner. And, largely because of Gore's advocacy, climate change has become a mainstream political issue--it was barely mentioned in his 2000 presidential race. At the time of the Dean endorsement, speaking out against the Iraq War wasn't yet commonplace, even within the Democratic Party. Over the past four years, however, the party has fallen in line behind the anti-war views of Gore and Dean. Gore is, without a doubt, the biggest endorsement available for Democrats (Bill Clinton is otherwise occupied).

As an icon to many on the left today, Gore's support would in the least cause voters to give the candidate he endorses a second look. Should he opt to hit the campaign trail, Gore would also become a powerful surrogate in Iowa, New Hampshire, and across the country. Most polling puts Gore's support at around 10% of the Democratic primary electorate (that's without actually campaigning). Certainly not all of those supporters would flock to the candidate Gore endorses, but a good amount may be persuaded. In fact, one new poll shows that 21% of Democrats say Gore's endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate. That figure seems high, but given the current political environment in Iowa and elsewhere, a few percentage points could make the difference. While he may not be a kingmaker, Gore is the next best thing for Democrats in '08.

Which candidate will be the lucky winner of the Gore sweepstakes? The former vice president said in an October interview that he hasn't made a decision yet, but our best guesses would be Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Chris Dodd. A Clinton endorsement seems unlikely--they reportedly had an icy relationship in the White House. Though they are apparently on better ground today, her politics don't fall in line with Gore's early and vocal opposition to the Iraq War--she is seen as calculating, while Gore is an activist no longer afraid to speak out. Of course, many believe that by sitting out the primaries, Gore would be effectively endorsing Clinton.

Obama aspires to be the type of transformational political figure many see Gore as today. Like Gore, he spoke out early in opposition to the Iraq War and decries the politics of Washington (something Gore has frequently complained about). Obama also recently suggested he would seek Gore's help as president (sucking up never hurts). Edwards has been one of the most aggressive crusaders for progressive ideals in this campaign. Though he did favor the Iraq War resolution in 2002, Edwards has since admitted the mistake and come out firmly against it. Edwards was also the first to contact Gore with congratulations after his recent Nobel win (again, sucking up never hurts). Chris Dodd is our dark horse candidate for Gore's support. Though he's failed to gain traction in the polls, he has won praise from many on the left for the stances he's taken on Iraq and the environment.

Obama and Edwards remain the most likely options--both have privately met with Gore (Dodd has as well) and have a very realistic shot at winning the nomination. Our hunch is that Obama will be the winner of the Gore sweepstakes, which could be the boost he needs to overtake Clinton.

Cross-posted at Political Realm.