The Continuing Crisis in Pakistan and The Ominous Parallels With Iran

The Crisis in Pakistan has shown no signs of calming. Protesters are beginning to fill the streets in larger numbers, and the Chief judge is calling for Pakistani's to "rise up". Benazir Bhutto is also vowing to fight the Martial Law.

Meanwhile, some believe that the Bush Administration is supporting, and will continue to support dictator & ally Pervez Musharraf, as he tries to tighten his grip on power. Watch/Listen to report from Democracy Now.

Ironically, it is the Bush Administration support for Musharraf that is fueling much of the discord in Pakistan and threatening Musharraf's grip on power.

I can see a situation in Pakistan similar to Pre-Revolution Iran, when the U.S. supported the Shah. The consequences of the U.S. bringing a dictator (the Shah- Mohammad Reza Pahlavi) to power in Iran in the 1953 Coup that removed Mohammad Mossadegh (A Democratically elected Prime Minister), eventually led to the Iranian Revolution in 79. As a result, a much more radical religious fundamentalist leadership took power in Iran. The parallels between Pakistan and Iran cannot be ignored. Hear an NPR discussion with Stephen Kinzer about his book All The Shah's Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror.

In Pakistan, the U.S. is stirring up similar religious fundamentalist elements, along with the small number of pro-democracy groups. The U.S. is also uniting all of the anti-Musharref groups there (just as they did in Iran).

See the following summary of Irans history after the 1953 Coup from Iranchamber.com:

In the context of regional turmoil and the Cold War, the Shah established himself as an indispensable ally of the West. Domestically, he advocated reform policies, culminating in the 1963 program known as the White Revolution, which included land reform, the extension of voting rights to women, and the elimination of illiteracy.

In 1967 he crowned himself as King of the Kings (Emperor of Iran) and his wife, Farah Diba, as Shahbanoo (Eperess), which caused discontentment amongst different levels of society.

These measures and the increasing arbitrariness of the Shah's rule provoked both religious leaders who feared losing their traditional authority and students and intellectuals seeking democratic reforms. These opponents criticized the Shah for violation of the constitution, which placed limits on royal power and provided for a representative government, and for subservience to the United States. The Shah saw himself as heir to the kings of ancient Iran, and in 1971 he held an extravagant celebration of 2,500 years of Persian monarchy. In 1976 he replaced the Islamic calendar with an "imperial" calendar, which began with the foundation of the Persian empire more than 25 centuries earlier. These actions were viewed as anti-Islamic and resulted in religious opposition.

The shah's regime suppressed and marginalized its opponents with the help of Iran's security and intelligence organization, the SAVAK. Relying on oil revenues, which sharply increased in late 1973, the Shah pursued his goal of developing Iran as a mighty regional power dedicated to social reform and economic development. Yet he continually sidestepped democratic arrangements and refused to allow meaningful civic and political liberties, remaining unresponsive to public opinion.

By the mid-1970s the Shah reigned amidst widespread discontent caused by the continuing repressiveness of his regime, socioeconomic changes that benefited some classes at the expense of others, and the increasing gap between the ruling elite and the disaffected populace. Islamic leaders, particularly the exiled cleric Ayatollah Khomeini, were able to focus this discontent with a populist ideology tied to Islamic principles and calls for the overthrow of the shah. The Shah's government collapsed following widespread uprisings in 1978 -1979 and consequently an Islamic Republic succeeded his regime.

Seem familiar?

Could Pakistan be moving towards a repeat of Iran in 1979? It's almost as if Musharraf is reading from the Shah's script...and it's as if the U.S. never learned from that history. The militants in Pakistan have already tried to kill Musharref at least 3 times... coming close at least once. If the religious radicals do manage to take control in Pakistan, the U.S. will be looking at an unmitigated nightmare.