Tuesday, October 10, 2006

North Korea Reports Testing Nuclear Weapon

North Korea Reports Testing a Nuclear Weapon.

More nuclear tests are likely in the coming days. Read Here.



This is a Huge Failure of U.S. Foreign Policy.

This is yet another example of failed U.S. foreign policy. This is the result of Cowboy Diplomacy.
This shows why Cowboy diplomacy does not work very well.

This is not only a failure of the Bush administration, but a failure of U.S. foreign policy spanning the last few Presidents (going back to Reagan).

What led to this situation?

1. The failure of the U.S. to negotiate with North Korea in good faith to come up with a Peace Treaty and to improve relations. The U.S. didn’t want a non-aggression treaty, and N. Korea took that to mean that the U.S. intended to attack (which the U.S. probably did intend to do). Therefore, since the U.S. refused to provide security guarantees via a non-aggression treaty, N. Korea decided to work around this problem by using alternative means to get some measure of security for itself.

Bush had no clue about the importance of the North Korean issue, either before he became President or early in his administration. This is yet another sign of his incompetence. He had six years to deal with the issue, but failed to act effectively. Instead (as expected) he wants to put all of the blame on other people.

One of the biggest signs of good leadership is taking responsibility for things, whether good or bad. "Responsibility" is something that Bush & Co. routinely avoids.

2. The U.S. policy of imperialism and expansionism around the world has created a sense of worry in other countries. The U.S. has become a nation that relies on its military to solve many of its problems with the rest of the world…either through attack or through the threat of force. The projection of U.S. military power frightened an already paranoid N. Korean leadership. Due to the stated U.S. policies of pre-emptive war, more countries look to unconventional weapons as a way to prevent/deter a U.S. attack.

3. The War in Iraq.

N. Korea and other countries see the war in Iraq and see 2 things- #1. They believe that they could be next and should therefore take actions like what we are seeing now with the bomb tests, and #2. They see signs of weakness and vulnerability with the U.S.
They know that U.S. troops are tied up in Iraq and the U.S. military is strained. This is why the U.S. made such a huge strategic blunder by going into Iraq. The U.S. is now bogged down in the wrong country as the real threats are developing elsewhere. Not that I would necessarily support military action in those cases, BUT those countries MIGHT make different political and strategic calculations if the U.S. had more military options (more troops available).

There was probably nothing that the U.S. could have done to stop N. Korea from developing nuclear weapons through any kind of military force. So even if U.S. troops were not in Iraq, it may not have mattered. However, the U.S. would be in a much better position if it had its forces freed up to deal with these real threats.

4. Support by China and Russia.

China and Russia are putting on a dog and pony show by publicly denouncing N. Korea. Behind the scenes, these two countries are staunch supporters of N. Korea. Both countries see N. Korea as being a barrier to South Korea, Japan and the U.S.

Neither Russia or China (both countries still run by dictatorships) wants to see a Democratic Korea on its border. N. Korea is still a client State of China and Russia, and both countries still supply N. Korea with food, weapons, technology and energy. Nothing much has changed in the last 50 years between N. Korea and its lifelines China and Russia.

The Russian people should be furious at their government. Not only for killing journalists and turning to its old Soviet ways, but they should be angry about the lack of condemnation against N. Korea by the Russian leadership. The Russian people can’t be too comfortable about having a mad man on its borders, setting off nuclear bombs…. Especially knowing that they have been sponsoring the North Koreans for half a century.

But the U.S. position in the World is so poor that the people in these countries sympathize with the N. Koreans, because of U.S. aggression around the world. This is what John Wayne diplomacy has given us. We can thank Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Clinton and the current Bush administration for this result.

Russia and China will not support any real sanctions against North Korea…. (as expected) they are already backing off of their earlier condemnation of N. Korea.

5. The ineffectiveness of international institutions such as the UN and the NPT and CTBT programs. This has not been because of these institutions alone. The lack of leadership by the big countries in the UN, especially the U.S., is largely to blame. The U.S. basically gutted the NPT (Non-proliferation Treaty), and the CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty). The U.S. weakened these treaties and itself failed to follow the guidelines, which turned the treaties into almost worthless pieces of paper that few countries take seriously anymore.

There is no follow through from the UN, and any moral authority that the U.S. may have had has eroded. The world now understands that the U.S. uses the UN and the non-proliferation programs only when it suits U.S. interests…. Not for the collective best interest of the world. Countries are now taking advantage of this lack of leadership that the world has suffered through for the past several years.

6. Our so-called Congressional and executive leaders in Washington D.C. have put this country in peril. By allowing this reckless economy to continue unchecked for many years, we are now in a situation where China, along with other countries, manages the U.S. debt… making us dependent on them. Also, we are at the mercy of foreign oil producing countries such as Russia. This has put the U.S. in a situation where it has very little leverage with these countries. Therefore, it will be nearly impossible to get any help at the UN for sanctions or anything else.

7. U.S. leaders have also cut the size of the military too far. Many right-wing ideologues will blame Clinton for these cuts. I have already heard numerous claims that the N. Korean nuclear test was Clintons fault. Everything seems to be Clintons fault these days. But the fact is, the military cuts of the last decade or more were actually drawn up and initiated by the administration of George H.W. Bush. After the fall of Communism in Europe, the breakup of the Soviet Union, Bush (41) decided that money could be saved by cutting the military. After Gulf War 1, they began a bold reduction plan. Clinton was only continuing that process based on the plans and assessments initiated by George H.W. Bush’s administration.

Republicans and Democrats are at fault for doing this. The U.S. military is so strained by Iraq that we can’t even protect the homeland effectively. The U.S. has a navy and Coast Guard that are too small, and an Army that’s depleted. An Air Force with no clear mission and a budget so limited that it has to cut its orders for airplanes. The U.S. currently does not have enough air cover to protect the country from attack…we saw that on 9/11. The readiness is poor. Despite continued threats, another 30,000+ airmen are being cut from the Air Force. Even recently retired U.S. generals have stated that the U.S. military is facing a crisis. We now have Generals who have to go to the White House to beg for money just to keep the military at its current levels. The Army is having an unusual dispute with the Defense Secretary and the White House. Army Chiefs say they need more funding and the White House is not giving them what they need. What happened to the pro-war, pro-military Republican Party? Listen to audio report here from NPR. Hmmmm Looks like the Empire is having a little trouble with its commitments around the world.

If you are going to have a policy of being an Empire & bully, then you have to fund the huge military that would be needed to be a bully around the world. It’s not cheap. This is just a sign of the U.S. losing its dominant grip on the World. There are so many similarities between the U.S. and Rome. When great empires begin to decline, one of the first signs is a decline in military clout. The U.S. is now beginning to see the limits of military power and having a foreign policy based on its military strength rather than using other tools and strengths. This is why the U.S. needs to get back to a comprehensive, balanced foreign policy instead of this military based foreign policy, which has been used by Democrats and Republicans (otherwise known as the “War Parties”).

The U.S. must use its military to protect U.S. soil, instead of projecting so much offensive power around the world. Current U.S. military strength is not enough to defend the U.S.
Instead of having a “U.S. first policy”, we have troops stationed all across the world, leaving us more vulnerable at home. The current U.S. strategy for defense is to go on the offensive…. A strategy that does not always work and is not always the best option. The U.S. has no true “defense” based strategy because it only believes in a doctrine of attack attack attack. But having an offensive doctrine with no defensive doctrine is insane and irresponsible. This is what left the U.S. vulnerable on 9/11. Listening to the Air Traffic Control tapes, it was clear that the U.S. did not (and still does not) even have a culture of “defense”. They were frozen like a Deer in headlights when hit with the idea that the U.S. was under attack and they actually needed to take some defensive action. Yeah….good job… we landed some planes. But that’s not a defense plan. AND WE WANT TO ANTAGONIZE RUSSIA, CHINA, N. KOREA & OTHER COUNTRIES WITHOUT HAVING A DEFENSIVE PLAN? Not very smart at all.



What Should Be The Next Steps For The U.S.?

First of all I have absolutely no confidence in the ignorant, incompetent, shiftless, unethical, maniacal Bush administration to do anything to make me safe. If they want to help me and the rest of the citizens to be more safe, the best thing that they could do would be to resign. I have not had a good nights sleep since George W. Bush took power. I look forward to the time when I can have my first good nights sleep in several years.

But barring their resignations, here’s what needs to be done:

1. Increase research and development on robust TMD (Theater Missile Defense). (Read also here). Move the TMD that we currently have into place around South Korea, and Japan.

2. Improve laser based Missile Defense systems, and secretly develop and deploy Space based systems. Initially I was not a huge fan of the U.S. missile defense system because the system is flawed and at the time, threats did not justify having one. However, through its senseless blundering, the U.S. has now created the conditions that require us to have it. Therefore the domestic system missile defense system should be beefed up ASAP and should be improved.

3. Stop feeding the North Koreans. Stop using my tax money to feed an opposing Army. Stop using my tax money to feed the North Korean people. Let them starve. Let the Chinese and the Russians feed them, since they are sponsoring (and enjoying) the current behavior in that country. Make no mistake…. The Chinese and the Russians could have stopped the N. Korean missile test with a phone call. They allowed this to take place because they made a strategic decision to support North Korea. They see the N. Korean actions as a check on U.S. power and influence in the region.

Take that tax money and give it to the Tsunami victims (many of whom still have no homes), and get the Tsunami warning system built in the Indian Ocean. Help with providing AIDS medicine for parts of the world in most need. And help our own people- such as the victims of hurricane Katrina, people with no healthcare or inadequate healthcare, people with no job training options (build job training centers in every major metro area across the country).

It is up to the N. Korean people to take their own country back.

4. Find a way out of Iraq, and reduce other foreign military commitments around the world. Get out of the John Wayne World Sheriff business. Use the extra troops to defend the U.S. homeland.

5. Increase the size of the U.S. military dramatically (several hundred thousand troops… I would say ½ million to 1 million). Increase the number of active duty, but also increase the number of reserve troops.
The Navy needs more ships and the Air Force needs more planes. This should not be intended to project power overseas, but to protect the U.S. homeland… including putting troops on the border. All of the U.S. Coast should be covered. And if necessary, the U.S. should be able to fight 2 major wars and 2 smaller ones simultaneously. If we cannot handle Iraq, with 135,000 troops, then we are in very serious trouble. Currently, there are very few frontline U.S. fighting divisions. The amount needs to double (from about 10 divisions to 20...perhaps more).

6. Rebuild the CIA…. The organization has been gutted, especially during the Bush administration when several experienced personnel left the job. It needs to be bigger, stronger, faster, and more efficient. Why don’t we have enough human intelligence by now? 9/11 occurred 5 years ago. Why can’t the U.S. get to N. Korean military officials and buy them? The Bush administration seems to be good at using propaganda for its own aims within this country against American citizens, but we are not using a massive propaganda campaign to win over N. Korean military leaders. Why aren’t we asking/encouraging them to defect? Why aren’t we encouraging them to take their country and promising our financial support and promising to protect them if they are able to leave that country or if they can take power? Why aren’t we encouraging the N. Korean people to take their country?

7. Get our financial house in order so that we don’t have to bow down to China. We need leverage (other than military threats) to wheel and deal with other countries. I am seeing a U.S. that is becoming more and more irrelevant in the world, despite its military strength (which has been overestimated).

8. The U.S. must free itself from dependence on energy from other parts of the world. Canada has quite a bit of oil, Mexico has quite a bit of oil, South America has oil (and we must fix our relationship with Venezuala), and there is oil in the Gulf of Mexico. There is enough oil to have all of the products that oil also makes (plastics, tires, etc).

But for running cars and other motors, we must innovate alternative fuel technologies ASAP. The U.S. should have started this 15 years ago. If we had, we would not be in the mess we are in today. Hydrogen and ethanol seem to be the most promising, but there are also other fuels out there. The U.S. has not launched any serious campaign to create energy independence. This is the Manhattan Project of our day. In fact, it’s more important than the Manhattan Project. This is important from an environmental standpoint, from a strategic/National Security standpoint, and from a national economic standpoint.

8. Put sanctions on N. Korea along with a coalition of willing States. Rogue countries will not help.
Russia and China WILL NOT help in this effort. We should go for whatever limited sanctions that are possible. When unrest begins in N. Korea, let the thugs who run Russia and China deal with the spillover.

9. The stopping of ships or blockading of ports is probably a policy that will only spark an incident. However, checking SOME foreign ships that are departing N. Korea and are in international waters might be an effective measure for dealing with the spread of weapons or technology from N. Korea.

But I think that the U.S. and the U.S. defense industry should not be so hypocritical either. The U.S. must lead by example and cut weapons exports. By looking at U.S. media, one would believe that N. Korea is the biggest weapons trafficker in the world. The fact is, that title belongs to the U.S.

10. Keep the door for negotiations open at all times. The U.S. should be willing to talk to N. Korea and Iran directly instead of outsourcing this job to other countries. However, other countries, including the UN, could be included as witnesses and should co-sign (witness) any Peace treaties.

11. Repair the U.S. image around the world.

Also, use diplomacy more effectively as a tool for peace rather than as just an excuse to go to war. U.S. diplomacy is non-existent at the moment.

12. South Korea and especially Japan should be allowed to beef up their military forces. Japan is huge in comparison to N. Korea, and Japan could definitely out spend N. Korea. Japan has almost as many people as Russia. Japan could certainly create a military force triple or quadruple the size of the N. Korean forces, without much strain on its economy. In fact, it could support the Japanese economy. Japan, a tech center of the world, should also be allowed to work on its own weapons systems, especially defensive systems.

This would also be a way for Japan not to be so dependent on U.S. forces. Therefore, the U.S. would not have to increase its troop levels there. In fact, the U.S. could pull some forces away.

13. UN monitors should be placed on the DMZ between the two Koreas, so that the actions of the N. Koreans could be documented, and if necessary, publicly reported.

14. Smuggle radios and use radio signals that could be picked up in N. Korea as a way to give the people there a better window to the outside world. (Similar to #6 above).


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Previous Blog Entries on the Subject of North Korea, including Editorial Commentary.

**Editorial "A New Approach Needed For North Korea"

**Other previous blog entries

2 comments:

Brian said...

Fellow local blogger from 'Disgusted in St. Louis' offers his take on the N. Korea situation... interesting article from Newsweek.

View Comments Here

View Site Here

Anonymous said...

The claim that the US failed to negotiate with North Korea in "good faith" is unfounded. The US, in multiple occasions has offered incentives for North Korea to come to the diplomatic table. However, the beligerance of North Korea is continual. The Agreed Framework from the 1990s is a good example. The US allowed North Korea to develop light water reactors in exchange for non-pursuit of weapons programs. This was a "good-faith" negotiation, however, the North failed on its end of the agreement. The departure of North Korea from the UN Non-Proliferation treaty is yet another example of North Korean beligerence. The US and the UN have a very simple requirement: Dismantle the weapons programs and then sanctions will be relaxed or eliminated. Blaming the US in this situation is like blaming a rape victim.
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Brian Dear
http://superacidjax.blogspot.com