Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Here is my new list of the Worlds most Dangerous Flashpoints.
Here is the list from the previous year.... and it looks like I was pretty close on a few. In parenthesis below, you will see last years spot for each location or conflict zone. Notice which locations and conflict zones moved up.
New list (for the coming year, 2009)
1. Israel - Iran (4) **
2. Persian Gulf/U.S. - Iran (3) (How will Obama’s Neo-Con Light Foreign Policy Team approach this situation? It bothers the Hell out of me…I have been let down by the signals given by Obama’s transition so far). **
3. Georgia (6) **
4. Pakistan (1)
5. Afghanistan (10)
6. Russia (13) (Russia can officially be called a dictatorship) **
7. Pakistan - India (14) **
8. Caspian Region (12) **
9. Ukraine- Russia (17) **
10. Darfur (Sudan) (5)
11. Iraq (2)
12. Somalia (22)
13. Chad (7)
14. Congo (15)
15. Turkey/Iraq border (Turkey's battle with Kurds) (11)
16. Chechnya, Russia (18)
17. Israel- Lebanon (9)
18. Israel - Syria (8)
19. China - Taiwan (16) ** (now that the Olympics are over... and with the global economy tanking, China may again make a push to take Taiwan. A Nightmare scenario. The good news is... a much less bellicose Government is now in charge in Taiwan-- the confrontational Pro-Independence Party was recently defeated-- which may decrease the chance of a conflict with China).
20. North Korea (the North Koreans have been waiting for a Democratic Administration… but with the Neo-Cons simply being replaced by Obama's Neo-Con Light, it is unclear how negotiations will play out.) **
21. Kosovo (23)
22. Thailand (new to the list)
23. China - Japan (26)
24. Poland - Russia /NATO vs. Russia (new to the list) Not so unthinkable anymore, thanks mostly to U.S. foreign policy. In fact, it’s more likely today than 30 years ago during the height of the Cold War. Eastern Europe is nearing powder keg status once again thanks to Bush's plan to place an anti-ballistic missile system in Poland- one of many Bush policies that Obama and his Neo-Con Light crew are likely to continue.
25. Israel- Palestine (new to the list) I typically think of this long never ending conflict as being isolated to the region. That's mostly true...but it still manages to heighten tensions and affect negotiations elsewhere.
26. Greece- Turkey (25)
Dropped from list: Myanmar/Burma, Sri Lankan Civil War, Venezuela
** = locations and conflicts of particular interest.