Sunday, May 14, 2006

U.S. Moving Closer To Attack On Iran

U.S. Moving Closer To Attack On Iran.

Plans have quietly been put into motion.

Article from Rawstory has more information.

I have to disagree somewhat with the main conclusion- that the U.S. will attack in June.

1. Iran is massive... three times the size of Iraq, both in land and in population. There would also be many sites to hit. The U.S. would not be ready by time suggested in the article (June 06) IMO. Aircraft carriers would only be a portion of the attacking force. The U.S. airforce would have to move forces and equipment into the region. The Carriers could simply be taking part in exercises are could be engaged in their normal rotating process. The article doesn't mention anything about carriers rotating out. These carriers could simply be replacements. The U.S. keeps a constant carrier presence in the region as routine.

2. I can't see Bush & Co. attacking a few months before the November elections. It's inconceivable that they would do anything before then. The earliest most likely time would be around Christmas of this year- AFTER the November elections. The U.S. also has a history of starting these things around the Christmas Holiday. OR it would happen sometime in 2007.
The truth is... Even though the neo-cons want to attack anyway, regardless of diplomatic efforts, they will have a hard time making it appear that all diplomatic efforts had been exhausted by June. That would be too early. They at least want to make it appear that they really wanted a diplomatic solution, when some of us know that they really don't.

3. This is a bad moment for Bush politically. Does he have the political clout to do something like this as soon as next month? I don't think so.


However I do agree with the overall suggestions from the article... that the U.S. is slowly moving forward with war planning.

I think an attack would be a disaster for the reasons that I have mentioned on the site before.
Just like with the war in Iraq...the U.S. will certainly be able to start a war with Iran (The U.S. is an expert when it comes to starting wars), However, the U.S. may not be able to finish what it started. An attack against Iran could grow into something beyond what the U.S. could handle. Just imagine Iraq and multiply that by a factor of at least 10... that will equal Iran.

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