Saturday, February 23, 2008
Look at that trend line for Texas. More often than not, that kind of surge has usually = good things for Obama. I will be looking to see if the trend holds over the next several days. This is definitely good news for Obama, considering that he doesn't even have to win the State to win more delegates.
Obama's ascension in Ohio is not as sharp. But his goal in Ohio should be to close the gap and minimize her net delegate gain....perhaps to the point of nearly cancelling it out. But if he can get within 1, 2, or 3 percentage points in the polls over the next few days (although I don't see that happening), and if he can maintain that level for a while, he will actually have a chance to win. Large urban areas in States like Ohio (Columbus, Toledo, Cleveland, Cincinnati) are notoriously hard to measure in polls, even when polls attempt to compensate and factor in the votes from cities. Often the candidate with more support from minority and urban areas gets a sizable hidden boost on election night.