Sunday, February 24, 2008

Chuck Todd On The Delegate Battle



Hat Tip: ObamaIsWinning.com

Update on developments in the race:

Obama has a commanding lead in Vermont.... so the Clinton folks won't be able to claim a sweep on March 4th as they had originally hoped.

Obama has now matched Clinton in Texas...and from the polls that I see (at Dave Leip, Real Clear politics and Pollster) he seems to be maintaining momentum and is behind only a point or two in most poll results. That is probably more of an advantage to Obama, because he should get the hidden boost that usually comes from African American voters. They tend to be concentrated in smaller areas and are notoriously hard for polling groups to factor in. In order for Clinton to feel comfortable, she would have to consistently show leads of more than 5 or 6%...and she's not doing it. And even if she does win Texas, ....and certainly if she wins by a slim margin, Obama could end up with more delegates from the State.

Ohio is also tightening, but Clinton has a comfortable lead.

As things stand right now... I'd say that if Obama wins more delegates in Texas, and takes Vermont....and if she wins Ohio and Rhode Island...but doesn't really crush Obama....then it would basically be a repeat of the February 5th split decision. And that's not what Clinton needs.... she needs to win big in all States.

March 4th, could finally bring an end to the Democratic primary madness...
But something tells me that she won't go away after a split decision. What she will likely do in the case of a split decision is move the goal posts back to Pennsylvania on April 22nd, where she would have an advantage (ex. closed primary, etc). The only problem with that is Obama will likely win the Mississippi contest which takes place before Pennsylvania.

The Clinton people have to really think about when to move out of the way. Because if you really look at where we are... we are now in a 3-way race for the White House... with Obama having to deal with fighting McCain and Clinton at the same time.
I know that Clinton and McCain are good buddies, but I hope they aren't attempting to tag team Obama.

5 comments:

heartsandflowers said...

They share strategies and strategists. McCain's used to work for Mark Penn. Obama's being tag-teamed by both Clintons and McCain.

rikyrah said...

AI,

Will you find the clip of her in Rhode Island, and how nasty she has been towards Barack?

I think we need to spread the word by showing that nasty clip on as many places as possible.

How contemptuous she is of Obama and his voters.

rikyrah said...

I want you to post it.

Hillary Clinton's Contempt

rikyrah said...

Also AI,

It's become obvious that she's trying to deliberately hurt Obama for the General Election. If SHE can't be the nominee, then no Democrat will win.

Want you to read this post and see what you think, and think about posting it.

Thorazinetime for Hillary

West On Point said...

From one Independent to another I would like to thank The Angry Independent for posting this very factual article "Chuck Todd on The Delegate Battle" written by Chuck Todd. I actually seen him make this point on MSNBC about a day ago. People fail to realize Hillary has a much more steeper hill to climb than she leads people to believe. Their are pundits who still believe theirs some chance she can just out the blue past him in pledged delegates (153 lead) with just marginal victories which is simply ridiculous. Just like I hinted in my blog entitled "Oh Hillary" with marginal victories she will still come up significantly short based on splits in delegates. I'm over Hillary all ready, so lets move towards the general election because I'm exhausted.