Sunday, February 24, 2008
Hat Tip: ObamaIsWinning.com
Update on developments in the race:
Obama has a commanding lead in Vermont.... so the Clinton folks won't be able to claim a sweep on March 4th as they had originally hoped.
Obama has now matched Clinton in Texas...and from the polls that I see (at Dave Leip, Real Clear politics and Pollster) he seems to be maintaining momentum and is behind only a point or two in most poll results. That is probably more of an advantage to Obama, because he should get the hidden boost that usually comes from African American voters. They tend to be concentrated in smaller areas and are notoriously hard for polling groups to factor in. In order for Clinton to feel comfortable, she would have to consistently show leads of more than 5 or 6%...and she's not doing it. And even if she does win Texas, ....and certainly if she wins by a slim margin, Obama could end up with more delegates from the State.
Ohio is also tightening, but Clinton has a comfortable lead.
As things stand right now... I'd say that if Obama wins more delegates in Texas, and takes Vermont....and if she wins Ohio and Rhode Island...but doesn't really crush Obama....then it would basically be a repeat of the February 5th split decision. And that's not what Clinton needs.... she needs to win big in all States.
March 4th, could finally bring an end to the Democratic primary madness...
But something tells me that she won't go away after a split decision. What she will likely do in the case of a split decision is move the goal posts back to Pennsylvania on April 22nd, where she would have an advantage (ex. closed primary, etc). The only problem with that is Obama will likely win the Mississippi contest which takes place before Pennsylvania.
The Clinton people have to really think about when to move out of the way. Because if you really look at where we are... we are now in a 3-way race for the White House... with Obama having to deal with fighting McCain and Clinton at the same time.
I know that Clinton and McCain are good buddies, but I hope they aren't attempting to tag team Obama.