A Roundup of the Weeks Events - Dissecting the Democratic Primary

NPR's On Point Radio program breaks down the Democratic Primary, and takes a look at other events from the past week.

Jack Beatty: "Race (ethnicity) becoming a Factor in Democratic Primary"

.... Beatty goes on to mention the issue of negative images of Black Americans in media and in the Popular Culture....and how that may impact perceptions among the White electorate. He is 110% right. The panel also tells the truth about the race strategy that Clinton has engaged in... to mark Obama as "The Black Candidate" who should be feared by voters.

I just want to grab these pro-Rap people by their necks when they start talking their apologist nonsense about the negative images, the embrace & worship of the street thug Rap culture in so-called "Black America", and the rampant crime that has consumed Black communities.

Those who say that this stuff isn't damaging... that the image of Black Americans in the U.S. and around the World is just fine... must have two sets of blinders on.

Listen Here

Post March 4th Discussion on Charlie Rose

Melissa Harris Lacewell (who I don't always agree with) spoke the truth when she talked about the way that March 4th is being framed & spun by the media.

Post Debate - Any Thoughts?

This was a rather boring debate. Clinton did not get the killer victory that she needed (and it may be too late for that anyway).

I didn't like the swiftboat attempt on Obama. These debate moderators and news organizations should be neutral (but as I have mentioned from the beginning, the media always favors the establishment candidates).

I also didn't like Obama's pledge that he would be beholden to Israel, rather than beholden to me as an American citizen. If he wants to run for the position of Israeli Prime Minister, perhaps he should move to Israel. One of the main problems with U.S. Mideast policy is the fact that the U.S. is not impartial and is therefore not viewed as a trusted peacemaker by all of the stakeholders. As long as that situation continues, Mideast Peace will be nearly impossible to achieve.

Obama's comments suggest that we will have 4 more years of the same failed U.S. policies in that troubled region. His comments did not portend "change". It sounded more like we will support Israel at all costs, even at our own peril. That is the approach that the U.S. has been using for 30 years, and it hasn't worked.

I also didn't like his praise of the Clinton Administration for its policy on Kosovo. It was their misguided policy that has created the current conditions for war in the region. That is not praiseworthy. We are still suffering the consequences of Bill Clinton's decision to attack Yugoslavia.

This is the main part of Obama's policy positions that bothers me most- his foreign policy. He is quick to adopt the Republicrat status quo on foreign policy.... The view that the U.S. should be the global cop with an imperialist, militaristic view of international affairs. The established policy (for both Parties) has been to gain U.S. influence around the world by projecting military power.

They both gave troubling statements about Russia... they didn't seem to realize that it has been U.S. foreign policy (since the mid 1990's) that has helped to create the current conditions in Russia, both economic and political. Now they want to get tough with Russia. To me, they sounded like the Republicans. Again, it looks like we will have 4 more years of the same U.S. foreign policy, particularly as it relates to Russia, no matter who becomes the next figurehead President.

This debate reminded me of why I never originally supported Obama...

But when compared to Hillary Clinton, I support Obama 100%. This is just as much about watching Hillary go down in flames, as it is about seeing Obama become the next President. The issue of a "Black" President was never a primary issue for me... although I would like to see it. For me, having "a Black President" has never been a major factor in determining who to support.

I also didn't like his weak response to that obvious attempt by the Clinton camp to race bait, divide, and scare white voters in Ohio and Texas. I predict that this ploy (along with the attempt to swiftboat Obama using Farrakhan), along with other lies told by Clinton, will begin to take its toll on Obama.... But I am hoping that it won't be enough to allow Clinton to catch up.

Clinton did get tripped up regarding NAFTA...and that was just beautiful to watch.

Any thoughts?

More from the New York Times

Chuck Todd On The Delegate Battle

Hat Tip: ObamaIsWinning.com

Update on developments in the race:

Obama has a commanding lead in Vermont.... so the Clinton folks won't be able to claim a sweep on March 4th as they had originally hoped.

Obama has now matched Clinton in Texas...and from the polls that I see (at Dave Leip, Real Clear politics and Pollster) he seems to be maintaining momentum and is behind only a point or two in most poll results. That is probably more of an advantage to Obama, because he should get the hidden boost that usually comes from African American voters. They tend to be concentrated in smaller areas and are notoriously hard for polling groups to factor in. In order for Clinton to feel comfortable, she would have to consistently show leads of more than 5 or 6%...and she's not doing it. And even if she does win Texas, ....and certainly if she wins by a slim margin, Obama could end up with more delegates from the State.

Ohio is also tightening, but Clinton has a comfortable lead.

As things stand right now... I'd say that if Obama wins more delegates in Texas, and takes Vermont....and if she wins Ohio and Rhode Island...but doesn't really crush Obama....then it would basically be a repeat of the February 5th split decision. And that's not what Clinton needs.... she needs to win big in all States.

March 4th, could finally bring an end to the Democratic primary madness...
But something tells me that she won't go away after a split decision. What she will likely do in the case of a split decision is move the goal posts back to Pennsylvania on April 22nd, where she would have an advantage (ex. closed primary, etc). The only problem with that is Obama will likely win the Mississippi contest which takes place before Pennsylvania.

The Clinton people have to really think about when to move out of the way. Because if you really look at where we are... we are now in a 3-way race for the White House... with Obama having to deal with fighting McCain and Clinton at the same time.
I know that Clinton and McCain are good buddies, but I hope they aren't attempting to tag team Obama.

The Trend Lines in Texas and Ohio

Look at that trend line for Texas. More often than not, that kind of surge has usually = good things for Obama. I will be looking to see if the trend holds over the next several days. This is definitely good news for Obama, considering that he doesn't even have to win the State to win more delegates.

Obama's ascension in Ohio is not as sharp. But his goal in Ohio should be to close the gap and minimize her net delegate gain....perhaps to the point of nearly cancelling it out. But if he can get within 1, 2, or 3 percentage points in the polls over the next few days (although I don't see that happening), and if he can maintain that level for a while, he will actually have a chance to win. Large urban areas in States like Ohio (Columbus, Toledo, Cleveland, Cincinnati) are notoriously hard to measure in polls, even when polls attempt to compensate and factor in the votes from cities. Often the candidate with more support from minority and urban areas gets a sizable hidden boost on election night.