Tuesday, November 06, 2012

The Next Four Years

I predict that Barack Obama wins 290 Electoral College Votes. Obama could lose a state like Ohio or Virginia and still win, but he cannot lose both. While the latest polling indicates that many toss-up states might break for Obama, I hedge my bets and predict that Romney and Obama split the swing states. However, Obama’s base is deeper than Romney’s, thus carrying the incumbent to victory.
Once November 7th is here and Obama knows what Congress looks like, again I predict no significant change with Democrats retaining the Senate and Republicans retaining the House, Obama will have to decide which of the following issues should be his biggest priorities. Strong arguments can be made for any and all of these, but political reality means some of the following will get short shrift over the next four years.

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