U.S. Continues to Meddle in the Former Soviet Union

Vice President Joe Biden recently expressed U.S. support for Ukraine's efforts to enter NATO (despite its own population being against it). Obama and his Neo-Con Lite foreign policy team are also cheerleading for Georgia's entry into NATO.

This is perhaps the dumbest foreign policy effort that the Obama Administration has engaged in so far, piggy backing on the damage in the U.S. - Russia relationship caused by the Bush Administration, and the Clinton Administration before that. Strategically it makes no sense. There are no good outcomes from this effort. None.

The best that could come out of this is a long-term chilling of relations between the U.S. and Russia; basically maintaining the status quo (not in the best interests of the U.S.). The worst that could come from this is a new arms race in Europe and a renewal of the Cold War...and a situation where military conflict (accidental or otherwise) becomes more likely....even more likely than the old NATO vs. Warsaw Pact days, when the two sides battled for influence in Europe and competed in other parts of the World (particularly Africa and Central America).

As I have written a million times before, expanding these kinds of treaties (NATO), particularly to include Countries that are politically, militarily, and economically unstable and are not at peace with their neighbors (and thus don't meet traditional requirements for NATO membership) would expose the U.S. and its military to unnecessary risks. NATO expansion would add more responsibility to a military that is already overstretched. Ultimately, this policy doesn't match up with Obama's efforts to focus more on domestic issues. These kinds of strategic moves overseas can easily derail his domestic agenda....an agenda that is already coming off the rails. Neo-Con Lite, despite what it says about improving relations around the World, seems to be deliberately testing Russia and appears to be willing to manufacture a crisis in Eastern Europe.

And what does the U.S. and NATO get for killing U.S.-Russian relations, taking on all these new responsibilities and risks, destabilizing Eastern Europe, and risking an arms race? Absolutely nothing of any substantive value. Georgia and Ukraine don't offer much militarily to NATO. In fact, the two Countries would be more akin to dead weight. Adding these Countries would be symbolic...another way for the U.S. to thumb its nose at Russia.... but this time the U.S. is dealing with a resurgent Russia. Such a move would only motivate the Russian Government, and its people (who once supported the U.S....but who now basically hate us) to do even more to work against American interests...whether in Iran, in the UN, on energy, North Korea, Iraq, the global economy and in other aspects.

I guess Neo-Con Lite and her 'reset button' nonsense was the gimmick that I thought it was afterall. That's exactly how the Russians are seeing it right about now.

From Russia With Love.....The Obamas in Moscow

Going to Moscow:

Arriving in Moscow:

Dinner in Moscow:

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (R), his wife Svetlana (2nd R), U.S. President Barack Obama (L) and First Lady Michelle Obama pose for a picture at the presidential residence Gorki outside Moscow July 6, 2009. Visiting U.S. President Obama and Kremlin leader Medvedev agreed a target for cuts in nuclear arms and a deal to let U.S. troops fly across Russia at the start of a trip intended to mend strained ties.
----------------REUTERS/RIA Novosti/Kremlin/Vladimir Rodionov

Getting off Air Force One in Moscow

Obama and Medvedev hold joint press conference

Welcome Ceremony

Michelle Obama tours Kremlin with daughters
First Lady, girls also have tea in Winter Garden and see Armory museum

J. Crew hawks First Daughters' clothes

The U.S. Still Seems to Be Itching For A Fight With Russia

NATO plans to hold major military exercises in Georgia next month - in a Country that just finished a war...and for all practical purposes is still at war. The exercises appear to be part of a continuing U.S. effort to instigate conflict in the former Soviet Union.

I was hoping that this madness would cease once Obama took office….but in the back of my mind I knew that there wouldn’t be much “change” on the foreign policy front, especially when it came to NATO and Russia policy.

The continued U.S. instigation in the Caucasus and the push to expand NATO will kill any efforts by the Obama Administration to reboot relations with Russia (which were just cosmetic efforts to begin with). As I stated before…the whole “reset button” nonsense was more photo op than real substance. In fact, these policies may eventually lead to a breakdown in relations altogether and to a renewal of the Cold War... or a rekindling of the Cold War that never really ended. If the U.S. continues in this direction regarding Russia Obama can forget about his dreams of a fresh nuclear arms reduction agreement, or the idea that Russia will help the U.S. with Iran and North Korea….or with any other major conflicts.

How Clinton Got the "Reset Button" Wrong

Amazing story.... lol

I told you all....

But I Thought Hillary Clinton Pushed the Reset Button?

Here's why Hillary Clinton's meeting with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was part of an empty photo op... just like I said it was. The "reset button" was one of the dumbest gimmicks I have ever seen from a Senior U.S. official. I knew there was something pretty symbolic about Clinton getting the translation completely wrong. (also see report from the UK Times).

Just like I stated a few days ago... it will take more than gimmicks and empty photo ops to change the situation between the U.S. and Russia. The U.S. will have to decide to make real substantive changes in its foreign policy if it wants to get back on track. Unfortunately, Obama doesn't seem to understand the situation with Russia...at all. He is getting horrible advice from the Cold War relics that he has surrounded himself with. He is allowing the hawks in his administration (and just about all are Democratic Hawks... I also like to call them "Neo-Con Lite") to run his foreign policy regarding China, Russia, the Middle East, and other hot spots. And he's going to find himself in a situation where many of his domestic ambitions will have to be canceled or watered down due to misguided policy abroad. The U.S. can't afford an arms race or another major conflict, yet Obama is leading the Country down a road that will lead to one or both of those two outcomes. He is continuing many Bush Administration policies that were already leading to an arms race in Europe.

I don't think Americans will begin to pay attention to this until something major happens or until they see how Obama's right wing foreign policy will impact their domestic programs. At some point they will see that Obama's foreign policy is not much different from that of Bush & Cheney. Then they will take notice. But unfortunately it will take a couple of years before people start paying attention.

And the Russians are looking at more than just an arms race and strengthening their nuclear weapons arsenal... they are also considering basing their strategic bombers in Cuba and Venezuela. To put that into perspective.... the U.S.S.R. didn't even have long range bombers in the Caribbean during the Cold War period. In public statements, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mike Mullen and Obama officials are saying that this would be no big deal. But in their private meetings they are worried about these developments.



In terms of Cuba.... it's Obama's own fault for not taking advantage of the rapid changes in that Country. If the U.S. doesn't fill the void, and doesn't take advantage of business and tourism opportunities there, then the Cubans will seek support elsewhere. And that's exactly what they are doing...while the Obama Administration sits on its hands. The Europeans have already been putting more investment into Cuba. Now the Russians and the Chinese are making more connections to the island....all while the U.S. has stood by and has failed to establish a comprehensive, sensible, robust policy towards Cuba. Raul Castro has made it clear that he wanted to take his Country in a new direction and signaled that he wanted to revamp the broken economy. He also signaled that he might be open to political reforms. Cuba should have been one of the first Countries that Obama visited as President... but the U.S. hasn't even sent a high level figure to the Country. That was a signal to Raul Castro that he probably wasn't going to see much "change" from the new U.S. President. Now we are seeing some of the consequences from those failings (which started under the Bush Administration long ago).

Much of this is bluster on the part of the Russians to hit back at the U.S. for meddling in Russia's back yard - instigating conflict with Georgia and establishing bases throughout the Caucus's. The Russians are also upset (and rightfully so) about NATO expansion...which is now out of control. But the Russians could and likely will go ahead with this strategy if NATO is expanded any further east, and if Obama goes ahead with placing Missiles in Poland (and it looks like Neo-Con Lite Inc. has convinced him to go forward with this suicidal policy which, by the way, won't improve anyone's safety and security). They don't want you to know this...but the Polish and the Czech public ...and most of the people in the EU were against this missile plan from the beginning. European leaders never allowed this issue to to be voted on by the people in a referendum... because it would have been soundly defeated. The public is still against this move because they rightfully fear that it will lead to an unnecessary Cold War situation, will spark an unnecessary arms race, and will reverse all the the gains made over the last 20 years in the realm of East-West relations.

_______________________

Related article from the New York Times

Worlds Most Dangerous Flashpoints for 2009

Here is my new list of the Worlds most Dangerous Flashpoints.

Here is the list from the previous year.... and it looks like I was pretty close on a few. In parenthesis below, you will see last years spot for each location or conflict zone. Notice which locations and conflict zones moved up.

New list (for the coming year, 2009)


1. Israel - Iran (4) **
2. Persian Gulf/U.S. - Iran (3) (How will Obama’s Neo-Con Light Foreign Policy Team approach this situation? It bothers the Hell out of me…I have been let down by the signals given by Obama’s transition so far). **
3. Georgia (6) **
4. Pakistan (1)
5. Afghanistan (10)
6. Russia (13) (Russia can officially be called a dictatorship) **
7. Pakistan - India (14) **
8. Caspian Region (12) **
9. Ukraine- Russia (17) **
10. Darfur (Sudan) (5)
11. Iraq (2)
12. Somalia (22)
13. Chad (7)
14. Congo (15)
15. Turkey/Iraq border (Turkey's battle with Kurds) (11)
16. Chechnya, Russia (18)
17. Israel- Lebanon (9)
18. Israel - Syria (8)
19. China - Taiwan (16) ** (now that the Olympics are over... and with the global economy tanking, China may again make a push to take Taiwan. A Nightmare scenario. The good news is... a much less bellicose Government is now in charge in Taiwan-- the confrontational Pro-Independence Party was recently defeated-- which may decrease the chance of a conflict with China).
20. North Korea (the North Koreans have been waiting for a Democratic Administration… but with the Neo-Cons simply being replaced by Obama's Neo-Con Light, it is unclear how negotiations will play out.) **
21. Kosovo (23)
22. Thailand (new to the list)
23. China - Japan (26)
24. Poland - Russia /NATO vs. Russia (new to the list) Not so unthinkable anymore, thanks mostly to U.S. foreign policy. In fact, it’s more likely today than 30 years ago during the height of the Cold War. Eastern Europe is nearing powder keg status once again thanks to Bush's plan to place an anti-ballistic missile system in Poland- one of many Bush policies that Obama and his Neo-Con Light crew are likely to continue.
25. Israel- Palestine (new to the list) I typically think of this long never ending conflict as being isolated to the region. That's mostly true...but it still manages to heighten tensions and affect negotiations elsewhere.
26. Greece- Turkey (25)

Dropped from list: Myanmar/Burma, Sri Lankan Civil War, Venezuela

** = locations and conflicts of particular interest.

Georgia Was Not An Innocent Victim Afterall - Faces War Crimes Allegations

It looks like I was right about the Georgia-Russia War, while John McCain, Joe Biden and Barack Obama got it wrong. I hope this doesn't represent the start of a pattern for Obama/Biden in terms of being on the wrong side of history.

Just as I suspected, reports are now providing confirmation and consensus for the fact that Georgia was the instigator in its war with Russia over the Summer. With the meddling of the U.S. (co-instigator), the Georgians felt emboldened enough to start a war with the Russians. Beyond foolish!

Investigations by the New York Times, Human Rights Watch and others are providing a completely different picture from the one painted by Georgian President Saakashvili, John McCain, and even Barack Obama. McCain and Obama portrayed Russia as the aggressor and vowed to stand by Georgia; even though most reports at the time suggested that Georgia, with the backing of the U.S., instigated the war. This is one of the problems I have with Barack Obama. He is far too quick to jump onto the pro-war bandwagon, in an effort to look like one of the good ole boys. It's no surprise that he is already screwing up as President-elect. I'm already regretting my vote, and it hasn't even been a full week since election day.

It now appears that Georgia lied about the events that led to the war and their eventual defeat.

Listen to a brief story from Public Radio International (PRI).

From The New York Times

TBILISI, Georgia — Newly available accounts by independent military observers of the beginning of the war between Georgia and Russia this summer call into question the longstanding Georgian assertion that it was acting defensively against separatist and Russian aggression.

Georgia moved forces toward the border of the breakaway region of South Ossetia on Aug. 7, at the start of what it called a defensive war with separatists there and with Russian forces.

Instead, the accounts suggest that Georgia’s inexperienced military attacked the isolated separatist capital of Tskhinvali on Aug. 7 with indiscriminate artillery and rocket fire, exposing civilians, Russian peacekeepers and unarmed monitors to harm.

See more from the Daily Kos and from the full New York Times article.

Meanwhile, the Georgian public has begun to turn on their President. We can only pray that they decide to remove Saakashvili from office before his government is able to start anymore wars with the Russians. Saakashvili tried his damnedest to deliberately drag the U.S. into a direct shooting war with Russia. He used the U.S. for what he thought would be his own political gain. Even more troubling than that, the Bush administration actually seemed willing to oblige him, up to a point. Unfortunately Obama supports the typical pro-war Republicrat view of this conflict and pretty much signed on to the Bush administrations Georgia policy...vowing to continue it once he takes the oath of office.

Barack Obama should put an end to the efforts to include Georgia in NATO and he should put an end to NATO expansion altogether. I don't expect him to do so because he is nothing but a puppet at the moment, taking direction from Clinton era advisers who were advocates for NATO enlargement. This was also the policy of the Bush administration. Obama has already indicated that he plans to continue most of the Bush administrations foreign policy initiatives, despite running on a platform (a questionable platform) of "change".

_______________________

See previous posts on Georgia

McCain Begging Russians For Financial Help

lol, this is too much.

Is it legal? Will this be investigated and given wall to wall news coverage?

From Novosti:

Russia’s permanent mission to the UN has received a letter from U.S. Republican presidential candidate John McCain asking for financial support of his election campaign, the mission said in a statement on Monday.
‘We have received a letter from Senator John McCain with a request for a financial donation to his presidential election campaign. In this respect we have to reiterate that neither Russia’s permanent mission to the UN nor the Russian government or its officials finance political activities in foreign countries,’ the statement said.
According to Ruslan Bakhtin, press secretary of the Russian mission, the letter dated September 29 and signed by McCain, was addressed to Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s envoy to the UN, and arrived on October 16.

Colin Powell Discusses Georgia Conflict

Powell joins the World of the sane with his assessment of the conflict in Georgia. He hinted that McCain's response was hasty.

Bush Administration Attempting To Provoke Conflict With Russia

The U.S. is reportedly sending a Coast Guard ship to the Georgian Port city of Poti, which is under the control of the Russian armed forces. This appears to be a clear attempt on the part of the Bush Administration to provoke a military confrontation with Russia. The U. S. knows full well that Russia has numerous ships in the Black Sea, in and around Georgia as part of their ongoing military operations there. This effort by the Bush Administration appears to be designed to create the environment for a “Gulf of Tonkin” or German U-Boat style incident. The Bush administration is using the guise of a “humanitarian mission” to send the ships into the Black Sea. There are also other NATO ships in the Black Sea conducting operations.

The Russians are already responding militarily and they have indicated that they will attempt to confront and search any Western ships entering the conflict zone. (This is the scenario that I was referring to last week).

Two other ships, including a Navy Destroyer, were earlier assigned to a different Georgian port- The port of Batumi- where no Russian troops are stationed. But one Destroyer, the McFaul, and possibly others may now head for Poti, a port that was not believed to be under consideration prior to today. The McFaul has been assigned to the Black Sea to conduct military operations after its “humanitarian mission”.

So why is the Coast Guard ship (and possibly more to follow) being sent to Poti, when other ports are available? Why use ships at all, when humanitarian aid can be moved into Georgia through a variety of other means, including by land and air? The U.S. has the greatest airlift capacity of any nation in the World. Why use a U.S. Navy Destroyer (the most powerful combat ship in the U.S. Navy’s arsenal) to ship humanitarian aid, when the U.S. military has access (contracts) to private merchant ships and its own Navy cargo vessels? This is the most bizarre fact of this whole thing. Why even use the military at all for this? The EU, UN, and NGO’s had been handling the real humanitarian effort and they have the know-how and expertise to best distribute any such aid.

This is an effort by the U.S. to flex its military might in what has become the biggest flashpoint on earth. U.S. & NATO warships in the Black Sea is provocation enough. But the use of a port that is part of ongoing military operations of another nation is a clear attempt by the White House to try to insert the U.S. directly into the conflict. There is no logical reason to use the Poti port or any other zone under Russian control, especially when other options are available. And it reveals the entire “humanitarian mission” as the fraud that it really is.

Contact peace advocates, diplomats, UN representatives, NGO’s/Peace Groups, and government representatives to put a halt to this reckless irresponsible schoolyard brinksmanship, before a new conflict and a new much larger crisis erupts.

I predicted this problem in my posting from last week, and suggested that the U.S. was using "humanitarian aid" as a way to get involved in the conflict.

Russia and the U.S. - An Essential Discussion

Hear an excellent discussion regarding U.S. - Russian relations from the On Point radio program.

The panel includes Strobe Talbott (A former Clinton Hawk, playing more of the neocon role in this debate), and Stephen Cohen, a great foreign policy analyst who has a more sane approach to U.S. foreign policy and seems to have a better grasp of where U.S. - Russia relations have been and where they are headed.

The U.S. Is Playing Russian Roulette In Georgia and Beyond

And the Sane people of the World, myself included, cannot understand why.

The Bush Administration Seeks To Insert The U.S. Into the Conflict

Why is the military always the answer to every problem for the United States? It is always the first thing U.S. leaders think about in a crisis. It’s as if no other options exist for these people.

Well, it appears that the Georgian conflict could eventually escalate. The Bush administration has announced that it will send humanitarian aid to Georgia via the U.S. military. The Bush administration also says that it will take control of Georgian ports. The question is - how are they going to do this without a possible confrontation? They know that Russia has blockaded Georgian ports, taking full control of most of them.

The following is from the International Herald Tribune:

On a day the White House evoked emotional memories of the cold war, a senior Pentagon official said Wednesday that the relief effort was intended "to show to Russia that we can come to the aid of a European ally, and that we can do it at will, whenever and wherever we want." At a minimum, American forces in Georgia will test Russia's pledge to allow relief supplies into the country; they could also deter further Russian attacks, though at the risk of a potential military confrontation.

"We expect Russia to ensure that all lines of communication and transport, including seaports, airports, roads and airspace, remain open for the delivery of humanitarian assistance and for civilian transit," Bush said. "We expect Russia to meet its commitment to cease all military activities in Georgia, and we expect all Russian forces that entered Georgia in recent days to withdraw from that country."President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, who has sharply criticized what he called a failure of the West to support his country, declared the U.S. relief operation a "turning point" in the conflict, which began last Thursday when Georgian forces tried to establish control in the breakaway region of South Ossetia, only to be routed by the Russians.

And what did the Russians do right after the U.S. came out with these statements about keeping Ports and rail lines open? They re-captured a Western port, took more prisoners, and blew up the rail line between Tblisi and Gori, cutting off an important link. And that was simply to prove a point and it allowed the Russians to thumb their noses right back at the U.S. .....you see, everytime that the U.S. makes these grand statements and demands that Russia do something (instead of talking to Russia, listening and truely negotiating in good faith about solving these wider issues once and for all) it only complicates the situation. It makes it more difficult for EU and OSCE diplomats to mediate.

Complicating matters even more....John McCain issued a statement last week stating that if he becomes President, he would push hard to have Georgia included in NATO. Thanks a lot John McCain. Essentially he is saying that he wants to all but guarantee a U.S. conflict with Russia if he is elected, as if we need any new wars, not to mention a war of that magnitude. The U.S. can't handle the two wars that it is currently entangled in. Complete madness!!!

Amazingly Barack Obama, the so-called "change" candidate, followed suit... saying that Georgia should be a part of NATO. That was the last straw for me in terms of how I view Barack Obama and his candidacy.

I knew that the longer this conflict dragged on, there would be a greater risk of the Bush administration doing something stupid like sending in the military's "humanitarian aid". Why in the world would the U.S. send troops (of any kind) to a conflict zone like Georgia unless it was seeking confrontation?

The danger with this situation is that a misunderstanding could lead to a larger conflict. We are dealing with 3 irrational government leaderships - In Georgia, Russia, and the United States. Increased involvement by the U.S. will only increase the risk of an incident. No one will be able to say that it was unforeseen if an incident occurs.

This new U.S. mission may be a deliberate attempt by the Bush administration to inject the U.S, further into the conflict. This “humanitarian” mission in Georgia may also be an effort by the Bush Administration to get the U.S. involved in a war without seeking Congressional approval. The guise of “humanitarianism” is always a convenient tool for avoiding Congressional approval for wars. Why a large humanitarian mission now in the absence of a permanent peace deal? And why is the U.S. so eager to take the lead role, when the EU had already taken this responsibility?

I also find it interesting that Bush is sending a humanitarian mission via the military so soon in Georgia. It all seems so disingenuous. If the U.S. were really concerned about humanitarianism, then why in the Hell hasn’t he sent significant help to Darfur, where there is a real genocide underway….responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of Africans, and displacing hundreds of thousands more?

What is really going on here is that the U.S. seems to be itching for a fight with Russia. At the least, the U.S. wants to continue poking Russia in the eye. In fact, we are in a frightening situation where war hawks control the governments of all 3 principal Countries in this conflict, particularly in the U.S. and Russia. In the U.S., we have an administration still controlled by neocons who long for a return of old Cold War tensions. They dream of taking us back to that period. They seem to welcome the idea of confrontation with Russia. Consequences? Who cares about consequences? They don’t care about the consequences of their hard-line approach. The rush they get from Cold War nostalgia overshadows the consequences.

On the Russian side….you have some of the same nonsense going on…. A group of ex-KGB men who also want to return to their old Cold War glory. Putin has made clear that he wanted to return Russia to the kind of status that it held during the Soviet days.

Any humanitarian mission should be part of a larger international effort - not an effort led by the U.S. military. The “humanitarian” mission seems to be about machismo…ego, and an effort by the U.S. to puff its chest. In fact, this whole conflict is about egos. Pride and emotionalism have trumped rational thought in Georgia, Russia and the U.S.

The U.S. intends to entrench itself even deeper into Georgia, by stepping up military contacts (despite the U.S. trained Georgian Army being trounced once already), and providing more economic aid. Senator Joe Biden - a possible VP choice for Barack Obama, recently took a trip to Georgia promising more money from American taxpayers. (I am amazed at how fast they move for European Countries, but have yet to provide the same urgency for Darfur, where tens of thousands have been killed....where there really is a genocide taking place).

As if that's not enough, the U.S. and Germany, among others, have essentially promised NATO membership for Georgia, with Ukraine not far behind. This is despite the fact that it makes no good sense whatsoever, and many experts have sounded the alarm about such a move. Some believe that NATO is like a book club, or a treehouse gang. They seem to forget that NATO is a one for all, all for one military defense alliance. The risks of a conflict increases, and the burden on member countries increases (esp. the larger nations) whenever a new nation is added. Furthermore, NATO has not traditionally been in the business (until recently) of including unstable Countries, and countries that are in conflict, and have regular skirmishes with their neighbors. Why The U.S. wants to make this move is beyond comprehension and goes against everything that is sane & rational.

Related Links

Article On Georgia and NATO from March 08

Article from the New York Times

More on NATO

Georgia Still on Course for NATO membership

Georgia & Russia Conflict and Missile Defense In Europe

More on the Georgia - Russia crisis and the Missile Defense Deal with Poland, from PRI. Check Audio Report. The lunacy of U.S. Foreign policy in Europe is unbelievable.

As I have stated on this blog numerous times, the expansion of NATO (the growth of Empire) and the fanatical drive to place missile interceptors in former Warsaw Pact territory makes absolutely no sense.... not militarily, not economically, and not politically.

More from NPR

Discussion Of Last Weeks Events

Hear a great discussion of last weeks events from On Point Radio.

The main topic of discussion was the Russia-Georgia conflict, and the insane U.S. policy that has instigated the crisis. Unfortunately the debate was 2 against 1 (2 Neocons vs. 1 Progressive, Mr. Jack Beatty). Usually the panels on this program are more balanced.

A Proposal for Mediating Georgia Conflict

A Possible Mediation/Peace Proposal For Georgian Conflict

DISCLAIMER/CLARIFICATION: None of the organizations listed below has endorsed these ideas. The Purpose of the message was to spur thought & discussion among organizations so that they could come up with their own ideas. Sorry for any confusion.

Efforts Should Focus on the Following:

1. Establishing a ceasefire to allow for the treatment & evacuation of the wounded and to establish a safe humanitarian corridor for civilians to evacuate. Establish access for Red Cross & other NGO’s.

2. Get all military forces to pull back either completely or partially to establish a demilitarized buffer zone. Deweaponize the area. This will reduce the number of clashes.

3. Establish a more permanent ceasefire and begin negotiations on the long-term status of South Ossetia.

4. Make sure rebel groups stand down and are part of negotiations.

5. Allow a stabilization force of a few thousand UN Soldiers to patrol the area to fill the buffer zone; including UN observers. This UN force should not include any American ground troops. Ideally, this UN force should be made up of troops from neutral Countries, and both disputing parties should have at least some say on the make-up of this force. Some of the observers could include officials from both sides, but the majority of any observer force should come from neutral Countries.

6. (In the interim) Return to the 16 year status quo of autonomous self rule in South Ossetia. Also, allow the UN to fund & rebuild the region.

7. Allow the South Ossetians to have a vote on their own future --A). to become independent, B). move to Russia, C). remain in Georgia, D). maintain UN administration, or E). some other option agreeable to both parties. The U.S. should not have a double standard on this issue. The U.S. either believes in self determination or it doesn’t. There should not be one set of rules for some Countries and another set of rules for others….(Kosovo for example).

One possible compromise could involve Georgia keeping the land and Russia keeping the pro-Russian people. The U.S., U.N. & Russia should offer to pay (share the cost) for the relocation of the 40,000-60,000 South Ossetians who may want to move to Russia. They could be accommodated by a combination of existing housing and new housing within Russia. Housing costs for each family could be paid for up to 2-3 years. Or the South Ossetians could be compensated based on the housing and the land that they held while in South Ossetia. The relocation costs would be marginal compared with much larger migrations in history. The payments and buyouts should be high enough that relocating would provide the South Ossetians with a higher standard of living. This may help encourage people to accept the idea of relocation.

Another possible compromise could involve a partition of South Ossetia. This would probably not be the best option, but it may be acceptable to both parties. All of the pro-Russian residents who want to relocate can move into Russia and/or inside of the Russian portion of South Ossetia. Those residents who want to remain in Georgia could remain on the Georgian side. This may reduce relocation costs and travel distances. Residents on either side of the partition could be allowed to have dual citizenship. The drawback is that this might create a situation where disputing parties would live in close proximity…. Risking future skirmishes and conflicts.

8. Work towards a long-term non-aggression treaty between Georgia and Russia.

9. Use the carrot of future EU membership, economic aid & incentives to get the Georgians to cooperate.

10. Use the carrot of economic investment, trade, and a possible promise of no NATO membership for Georgia to get Russian cooperation. Show Russia that its relationships with Europe and the rest of the World are far more important than the Georgia issue. Emotions seem to be drowning out rational thought on the Russia side.

This crisis & other outstanding disputes are perfect examples of why NATO membership should not be considered for Georgia at any time. Stability is a key requirement for NATO membership, and Georgia does not meet that standard. There are also various other reasons why Georgia should not be considered for NATO membership. It is for these reasons that several NATO member Countries were not likely to approve Georgian membership anyway. Furthermore, Georgian membership would not offer NATO any substantial capability…it would not offer anything to NATO. Georgia would be more of a liability to NATO than an asset - It would be another liability for the U.S. and Europe to defend militarily, and a country that is not among the most stable. It would increase risk of a conflict, and would be one of the most irresponsible decisions that Europe/NATO has ever made.

Europe and the U.S. should open a wider dialogue with Russia about NATO expansion, since this is such a source of tension. It is time to consider Russian concerns.

11. Ensure that other nations do not enter the conflict militarily, even on a minimal level, and make sure that the international community and nations involved in mediation remain as neutral as possible.

12. Get all U.S. Nationals out of Georgia.

NONE OF THE ORGANIZATIONS OR INDIVIDUALS BELOW HAVE SIGNED OFF ON THESE IDEAS, NOR WAS I SEEKING ANY SUCH ENDORSEMENT. I will be deleting this message in the next few days, since the situation in Georgia has improved. Previous e-mails can also be disregarded, since the war is coming to an end....no action or further interest is warranted at this point.

Contact your member of Congress, governments, & organizations and push for mediation to bring a lasting ceasefire & an eventual Peace process in Georgia.

Below is a list of organizations that may be able to help spread the word and encourage mediation.

Carter Center
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=carterweb@emory.edu

Gov. Bill Richardson
http://www.governor.state.nm.us/emailchoice.php?mm=6


Kofi Annan
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=omct@omct.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=Iv@omtc.org

Council on Foreign Relations

http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=president@cfr.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=jreinke@cfr.org

Other Groups That Were Contacted (Please help connect with other groups)

United for Peace and Justice (coalition of hundreds of Peace groups)
http://www.unitedforpeace.org/contactus.php

The Carter Center - Hrair Balian- Coordinator of Conflict Resolution program
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=carterweb@emory.edu
(Let's get President Carter and his staff involved)

Peace Action
Director Kevin Martin
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=kmartin@peace-action.org

Barbara Bearden - Head of Communications
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=bbearden@peace-action.org

Other Key Peace-Action Staff
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=eswanson@peace-action.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/starighi@peace-action.org

FOR- Fellowship of Reconciliation
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=Hgaston@forusa.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=Mheckler@forusa.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=Mjohnson@forusa.org

Physicians for social responsibility
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=psrnatl@psr.org

2020 vision
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=Vision@2020vision.org

Union of Concerned Scientists
http://www.ucsusa.org/ucs/about/public-information-request.html

Veterans for Peace
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=vfped@veteransforpeace.net

War resisters
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=wrl@warresisters.org

Womens International League for Peace and Freedom
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=executivedir@wilpf.org

International Action Center
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=iacenter@action-mail.org

Nonviolent Peace Force
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=mduncan@nonviolentpeaceforce.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=RCarriere@nonviolentpeaceforce.org

Answer coalition
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=answer@answersf.org

Coalition for world peace
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=staff@coalitionforworldpeace.org

NAPF
http://wagingpeace.org/email_staff.php?person=dkrieger
http://wagingpeace.org/email_staff.php?person=scrandell

Moveon
http://www.moveon.org/event/faq/index.html?expand_all=-1&faq_id=45
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=adamgreen@moveon.org

Student Peace Action
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=SPAN@Peace-Action.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=info@paxchristiusa.org

Witness for Peace
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=Melinda@witnessforpeace.org

Campaign for Peace and Democracy
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=cpd@igc.org

American Friends Service Committee
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=PRasp@afsc.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=KDana@afsc.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=MHaggans@afsc.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=tomas@initiativet.nu

Women for Peace
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=womenforpeace@optusnet.com.au
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=info@peacewomen.org
information@huntalternatives.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=WFWPIntl1@aol.com

International Crisis Group (Trained Mediators Mr. Grono- VP for Ops, And Mr. Evans - Pres.)
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?action=form&fid=14&l=1

Info on Campus organizing
http://www.ibiblio.org/netchange/cco/
http://www.ibiblio.org/netchange/cco/orghelpful.html

Antiwar
http://antiwar.com/link-sub.php
info@objector.org

Grandmothers for peace
lorraine@krofchok.com
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=lorraine@grandmothersforpeace.org

Global Action to prevent war
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=coordinator@globalactionpw.org

Global peace now
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=info@globalpeacenow.com
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=webmaster@wwwc.org
http://www.ifor.org/

World Citizen Diplomats
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=loispeace@aol.com
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=npf@nationalpeace.org

Community Peacemakers
http://www.compeace.org/

Citizens For Global Solutions
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=Dkraus@globalsolutions.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=Hsalter@globalsolutions.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=Renholm@globalsolutions.org
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=Tmoran@globalsolutions.org

Juan Cole
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=Jricole@gmail.com

New America Foundation
Steve Coll President
Coll@newamerica.net
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=White@newamerica.net
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=Clemons@newamerica.net
Hartung@newamerica.net

Air America Radio
Thom@thomhartmann.com
jon@jontalk.com
laura@lauraflanders.com
mistachuck@rapstation.com
http://airamerica.com/contact

Blogs

Think Progress
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=thinkprogress@americanprogressaction.org

Moderate Voice
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=gandypro@gmail.com
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=schraubd@gmail.com

Carpetbagger Report
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=Admin@thecarpetbaggerreport.com

Gun Toting Liberal
http://guntotingliberal.com/?page_id=2410

Crooks and Liars
http://us.mc511.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=crooksandliars@gmail.com

Mother Jones
http://www.motherjones.com/about/admin/contact.html

Add Other Groups As You See Fit & Pass it on....

Fighting Breaks Out In Georgia

The U.S. and the Russians Are Once Again In A Standoff in Europe - Thanks to the Bush Administration

Conflict has erupted in the former Soviet Republic of Georgia. Georgian troops have attempted to reclaim the breakaway territory of South Ossetia. South Ossetia is a small enclave of about 70,000 people that is culturally & economically connected more with Russia. The breakaway region, backed by Russia, wants independence. Abkhazia is another region that wants to break from the Georgian government.

On the other side is Georgia, backed by the United States. The Georgian government does not want to give up control of the South Ossetia region. The U.S. has been ignoring warning signs of a conflict for months. In fact, the U.S. has been an instigator, escalating tensions. Ironically, this is all taking place as the Olympic Games are starting in Beijing. Leave it up to Bush and the United States to screw up the Olympics. Almost everywhere the U.S. goes, it brings nothing but war, chaos and trouble. This is why the U.S. is a growing pariah in the World. The U.S. couldn't even agree to call an end to the fighting at the UN. And it's ironic that Bush lectures the Chinese and other Countries about Democracy, freedom and allowing self determination, yet at the very moment that the U.S. is giving these lectures, it does not support self determination for the people of South Ossetia. This is despite pushing for Kosovo Independence. It is clear that U.S. political leaders only support freedom and self determination when it is convenient.

I have warned several times before that this was one of the biggest hotspots in the World. It is more volatile than the Korean DMZ in terms its likelihood for conflict...and it could have global consequences. Russian troops patrol the disputed region and thousands of U.S. troops are in Georgia. This could get as ugly as Berlin.... maybe worse. In Berlin, conflict was averted. We seem to be already past that threshold in Georgia. It's amazing how a tiny region of just 70,000 people could have the potential to create a regional conflict that could impact so many others. Remember WWI began over nonsense and it ended up being one of the most costly wars in human history, killing millions upon millions of people. And nations ended up in a stalemate.... gaining very little if anything that was worth the cost.

The Georgian conflict is another example of the U.S. being asleep at the wheel. The incompetence and recklessness of the Bush Administration exacerbates these conflicts, and has wasted so many lives already. Will we survive the next 6 months of this administration? Will we survive the policies of the next President? Who knows. My confidence that we will come out o.k. keeps eroding from one week to the next. But U.S. foreign policy has to change. In the Georgian conflict, the U.S. has allowed the Georgians to dictate policy, potentially at our expense, and even when it is not in our interests. It's another case of U.S. foreign policy decisions being made by foreign Presidents and Prime Ministers...and we simply follow along.

This latest conflict centers around oil and oil transit routes. The U.S. and Russia are competing for defacto control of the region so that they can control the flow of the regions natural resources. Another reason why the U.S. needs to end its dependence on foreign energy. The U.S. has few compelling, overriding interests in Georgia. Yet we sent a few thousand U.S. troops there after 9/11 under the guise of terrorism. The U.S. promised the Russians and other nations that U.S. troops would be out by now, but the Bush Administration did not keep its word. As a result, we have a situation that some analysts had feared...a new Cold War front.

See More Information About Georgia and the Roots of the Current Conflict

Russia Threatens War Over Kosovo

Serbs Protesting Kosovo Independence Declaration

I have been writing about this for years; mainly trying to get peace groups to head this off. Unfortunately Iraq has distracted the Peace Community and the world's attention away from other hot spots. This highlights the importance of being proactive about mediating conflicts before situations are allowed to deteriorate.

(back in November of 2007, I put together a list of the World's Biggest hot spots. Kosovo made the list, but it has quickly climbed to near the top in recent days).

Russia's tough talk is more about allowing the Bear to growl, than allowing it to bite (I hope). However, the U.S. has fought two wars in the Balkans, and the U.S. and Russia came extremely close to a military conflict in 1999, during the U.S.'s second attack on what was then Yugoslavia. Russia is not all about "talk" on this issue. Russian troops have been sent into Kosovo before (uninvited). There is no reason to believe that this couldn't happen again.

The Kosovo mess is yet another remnant of Bill Clinton and his misguided & aggressive foreign policy. This is why U.S. and European military involvement there without a stronger consensus and better cooperation with the Russians and the UN, was so shortsighted. I knew that it would lead to problems later on and that Kosovo (once a protectorate of the U.S.) would probably make a bid for independence, with U.S. and NATO backing.

Russia's NATO representative, Dmitry Rogozin, stated over the weekend that Russia may see that it has no choice but to use force, if NATO and the EU continued down this road (meddling in Eastern European affairs, supporting independence movements in sovereign countries, among other things). However, other reports indicate that, after the statement, Rogozin seemed to back away somewhat from the earlier message. But the statement still set off alarm bells around the World.

This is the culmination of the U.S. treating Russia like a poor little step-child for the past 15 years or so, giving the country no respect and rubbing the Cold War in their faces at every opportunity. Russians (who once leaned towards the U.S. & the West) were turned off by this treatment, and eventually turned inward and became more Nationalistic. Soon, Russians wanted to gain back the kind of prestige that they once had during the Soviet years, when they were not pushed around. This anti-American backlash provided former KGB thugs with enough support to seize power in Russia in the late 1990's, and they have been able to hold on ever since, due to continued U.S. arrogance. So in essence, the U.S. has unwittingly brought hardliners to power in Russia, which has in turn led to a rollback of Democracy there.

I just can't understand why the U.S. chooses to instigate and foment war and tensions in Europe, destabilize relations with Russia, expand NATO, meddle in the internal affairs of sovereign nations (when other tactics and forms of support may be more appropriate), invade Countries that are no real threat to the United States, anger its enemies as well as its friends around the world, shoot down satellites that don't need shooting down just to show off its military capability, etc.... when we have so many domestic needs....healthcare, a rehab of social security, fundamental improvements to infrastructure, an economy that is slowly tanking, huge deficits and a national debt that will soon become unmanageable, sky high gas prices, stagnant wages, troubled schools, a housing mess, better services for Veterans, a globalized economy of which the U.S. is not adapting to fast enough, climate change, etc... the list goes on and on.

Now we are facing the possibility of a third war in the Balkans since the 1990's. This is how the Serbs put it back in December when negotiations failed.

This is yet another example of foreign policy that the Clinton's and the Bush's are in lock step agreement on. The war in Yugoslavia was one of the key issues that turned me against Bill Clinton (although there were many others). This is one of the reasons why Hillary must not become the Democratic nominee or God forbid the next President of the United States. When you put Bill and Hillary together a pattern eventually emerges- that is, a pattern of bad judgements, particularly on matters of foreign policy. Bill and Hillary's foreign policy is not that much different from the Neo-Conservative Republican foreign policy. If you look at the goals of the PNAC (Project for a New American Century)- The seeds of the Bush doctrine- you will find several policy points that are in line with the Clinton's view on foreign affairs.

Well, thanks Slick Willy (and Bush & Co.) for yet another foreign policy mess.

Hopefully this situation can be diffused calmly, but Bush & Co. gives me no confidence whatsoever in their diplomatic abilities. They know how to start wars. But they aren't very good at heading them off or ending them once they have begun.

This event (the independence declaration) is not a shock. Everyone already knew that it was coming. However, the consequences of such a decision were always the problem, because of their unpredictability. Kosovo has been an autonomous protectorate since 1999, so for all practical purposes, it was already in control of many of its own affairs. But for the Serbs, it's about honor, and the history and tradition that they have invested in Kosovo, as well as an issue of territorial integrity.

Kosovo Declares Independence From Serbia

As expected, the decision by Kosovo to declare independence is dividing the international community. Russia is fighting to block official recognition of the new State. Russia used its power in the UN to create an impasse on the issue of recognition. To get around this, nations have begun to recognize Kosovo (an American protectorate in the Balkans) one by one. Most EU Countries have chosen to recognize the breakaway Republic.


Moscow is concerned about Serbs who live in Kosovo who may suffer from the independence declaration. Moscow is also concerned about its own breakaway Republics in Western Russia declaring independence after being encouraged by Western support of Kosovo. Russia has always seen Kosovo independence as unnacceptable, and has expressed its willingness to fight to prevent its own breakaway regions from doing the same. Russia sees the U.S. and the EU as instigators and supporters of these independence efforts in Kosovo and with regions on its Western flank and Moscow sees this as a threat to Russian national interests.

This will certainly work to keep the new Cold War going. The U.S. fought two wars in the Balkans in the 1990's which led to this point. And it was the U.S./NATO attack on Yugoslavia in 1999 that spurred a resurgence of Cold War rhetoric between the U.S. and Russia. That is the point when relations began to deteriorate (again) between the two Countries.

The U.S. has thousands of troops in Kosovo as part of the NATO KFOR mission.

Hear Report from NPR

Troops Open Fire On Protesters In Myanmar

Troops have opened fire on protesters in Myanmar, killing nearly a dozen and wounding several more. Several Monks have also been arrested in the largest crackdown in Myanmar in 20 years. A brutal crackdown in 1988 led to the deaths of thousands of civilians there.

Meanwhile, the Russians have made it clear that they don't stand on the side of Democracy in these kinds of conflicts. They have worked to block a joint statement of condemnation from the UN Security Council. China also supported blocking any condemnation, but that is to be expected from China. This is why it is so important for the people within Myanmar to fight for themselves and not depend on outsiders, including the United States. Although it is interesting that the U.S. received help during its freedom struggle, the Chinese received help from its Brutal repression at the hands of the Japanese, and the Russians beat back the Germans with the help of a Western front in WWII drawing precious German resources. But when another nation is battling for its freedom... they (China and Russia specifically) can't even agree to make a statement.

Perhaps China has forgotten about the Japanese occupation. Perhaps Russia has forgotten about the great battle of Stalingrad. Quite frankly, China is afraid of having another Democracy in its neighborhood, fearing that the protest sentiment could spread. And Russia wants to see governmental authority preserved at all costs... because it wants to feel comfortable knowing that it can continue with its own crackdown against Democratic elements there.

The Chinese throw a fit at the mere mention of Japans brutal repression in their Country... all they want to do is "condemn".

_____________________________

Previous Post Regarding the Myanmar Protests

More Trouble Between Russia and Georgia

Russia and Georgia just can't seem to get along. The thugs in the Russian government claim to know nothing about the reported bombing attempt on Georgian territory.

See Report

What Americans should be concerned about is the fact that the U.S. is pushing for NATO membership for Georgia, despite the fact that skirmishes between Georgia and Russia are fairly common. Also the political situation in Georgia is not stable...and they would offer little to NATO in terms of capabilities. In fact, Georgia would be more of a liability.

This is why NATO membership for Georgia is a bad idea.... it does not have a good, stable relationship with its neighbors. NATO expansion overall is a bad idea. It is an unnecessary burden for the U.S., at a time when the country already has too many defense treaty obligations. The U.S. should radically decrease these obligations instead of adding new ones.