Looking Back on the Past Year

U.S. Continues to Meddle in the Former Soviet Union

Vice President Joe Biden recently expressed U.S. support for Ukraine's efforts to enter NATO (despite its own population being against it). Obama and his Neo-Con Lite foreign policy team are also cheerleading for Georgia's entry into NATO.

This is perhaps the dumbest foreign policy effort that the Obama Administration has engaged in so far, piggy backing on the damage in the U.S. - Russia relationship caused by the Bush Administration, and the Clinton Administration before that. Strategically it makes no sense. There are no good outcomes from this effort. None.

The best that could come out of this is a long-term chilling of relations between the U.S. and Russia; basically maintaining the status quo (not in the best interests of the U.S.). The worst that could come from this is a new arms race in Europe and a renewal of the Cold War...and a situation where military conflict (accidental or otherwise) becomes more likely....even more likely than the old NATO vs. Warsaw Pact days, when the two sides battled for influence in Europe and competed in other parts of the World (particularly Africa and Central America).

As I have written a million times before, expanding these kinds of treaties (NATO), particularly to include Countries that are politically, militarily, and economically unstable and are not at peace with their neighbors (and thus don't meet traditional requirements for NATO membership) would expose the U.S. and its military to unnecessary risks. NATO expansion would add more responsibility to a military that is already overstretched. Ultimately, this policy doesn't match up with Obama's efforts to focus more on domestic issues. These kinds of strategic moves overseas can easily derail his domestic agenda....an agenda that is already coming off the rails. Neo-Con Lite, despite what it says about improving relations around the World, seems to be deliberately testing Russia and appears to be willing to manufacture a crisis in Eastern Europe.

And what does the U.S. and NATO get for killing U.S.-Russian relations, taking on all these new responsibilities and risks, destabilizing Eastern Europe, and risking an arms race? Absolutely nothing of any substantive value. Georgia and Ukraine don't offer much militarily to NATO. In fact, the two Countries would be more akin to dead weight. Adding these Countries would be symbolic...another way for the U.S. to thumb its nose at Russia.... but this time the U.S. is dealing with a resurgent Russia. Such a move would only motivate the Russian Government, and its people (who once supported the U.S....but who now basically hate us) to do even more to work against American interests...whether in Iran, in the UN, on energy, North Korea, Iraq, the global economy and in other aspects.

I guess Neo-Con Lite and her 'reset button' nonsense was the gimmick that I thought it was afterall. That's exactly how the Russians are seeing it right about now.

Middle Class Task Force Is Unveiled by Obama

Today, the Obama administration unveiled a new initiative specifically designed to address the concerns of the middle class. This is the first explicitly Populist and pro-Labor move that the Obama administration has made.

Obama, Biden Task Force On Middle Class (MSNBC)

On the campaign trail then-candidates Barack Obama and Joe Biden cast themselves as champions of labor and middle class, men who had not forgotten where they came from and who would fight for the concerns of ordinary Americans.

Today's announcement of a task force aimed at studying ways to raise living standards for middle class Americans and help the poor become middle class is in line with that same populist theme and with Obama's consistent focus on economic issues at a time of rising unemployment.

Middle Class Task Force (White House Web site)

The Task Force is a major initiative targeted at raising the living standards of middle-class, working families in America. It is comprised of top-level administration policy makers, and in addition to regular meetings, it will conduct outreach sessions with representatives of labor, business, and the advocacy communities. The Task Force will be chaired by Vice President Joe Biden. The Vice President and members of the task force will work with a wide array of federal agencies that have responsibility for key issues facing the middle class and expedite administrative reforms, propose Executive orders, and develop legislative and policy proposals that can be of special importance to working families.

Members of the Middle Class Task Force include: Vice President Biden, Chair; the Secretaries of Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Commerce, as well as the Directors of the National Economic Council, the Office of Management and Budget, the Domestic Policy Council, and the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors.

From his remarks upon the announcement of the creation of the Middle Class Task Force

I also believe that we have to reverse many of the policies towards organized labor that we've seen these last eight years, policies with which I've sharply disagreed. I do not view the labor movement as part of the problem, to me it's part of the solution. We need to level the playing field for workers and the unions that represent their interests, because we know that you cannot have a strong middle class without a strong labor movement. We know that strong, vibrant, growing unions can exist side by side with strong, vibrant and growing businesses. This isn't a either/or proposition between the interests of workers and the interests of shareholders. That's the old argument. The new argument is that the American economy is not and has never been a zero-sum game. When workers are prospering, they buy products that make businesses prosper. We can be competitive and lean and mean and still create a situation where workers are thriving in this country.

What do you think of this move by the Obama administration?

The Whistle-Stop Tour Picks Up Joe and Jill Biden

Much thanks to Icebergslim over at This Week With Barack Obama for the pics and video help

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Video From Behind the Scenes in Denver

Biden-Palin Debate on SNL

Here's a clip of the Biden-Palin debate skit from this week's Saturday Night Live

Surviving Is Not Winning

Sarah Palin survived tonight. She did not freeze or make any significant gaffe and anybody tuning in to see the final nail go into the coffin left disappointed. But avoiding another deer in the headlights, future SNL moment is a rather ridiculous measuring stick. Putting expectations aside, to suggest that Palin somehow won this debate by not falling flat on her face is simply laughable.

She appeared nervous, especially early on, and frequently rambled to the point that most answers lacked a coherent train of thought. The over-coaching led to stock answers and produced a candidate who completely avoided several questions and seemed fearful to veer off of her talking points. At one point, it seemed like every other word to escape her mouth was "maverick." Palin wasn't particularly effective in defending or espousing McCain's record and seemed largely out of her league during some of the foreign policy segments.

It wasn't all lemons tonight for the Republicans though and if we're judging simply on pass-fail, she certainly passed. Beyond the nervousness and the uneven delivery, Palin did display a certain charm and freshness that voters should find appealing. Unlike her running mate last week in Mississippi, she looked directly and almost exclusively into the camera and projected a positive mood. She spoke effectively to "Joe Six-Pack" early on, connecting her story to that of the average American. She did better to pivot her answers to more favorable ground, but this remains the part of her game that needs the most work. She kept the Obama attacks coming--some were more effective than others--and tried to portray a divide between the two Democrats.

Joe Biden seemed somewhat unsteady in the early stages--unsure of how forceful he should be, not looking enough into the camera, and appearing somewhat listless. He remained rather sober throughout and eventually hit his stride with relentless attacks on John McCain. As Obama did in his debate, Biden let no attack go unchallenged, arguing in lawyerly fashion. He showed a depth and range of knowledge that Palin wasn't able to match without appearing too senatorial or arrogant. Like Palin, he focused on the middle class during the economic segments and at times displayed a passion and connectedness that equaled his opponent.

Overall, neither candidate was exceptional. Palin was shaky, but passable. Biden was knowledgeable, but forgettable. I don't think any votes were won or lost and this meeting should ultimately prove meaningless (just like every other VP debate). The race has clearly become Obama's to lose, but 30 days, two debates, and the great unknown still stand in his way.

Cross posted at Political Realm.

The VP Debate - Your thoughts?

My favorite answer from Biden tonight.

Vice President Cheney has been the most dangerous vice president we've had probably in American history. The idea he doesn't realize that Article I of the Constitution defines the role of the vice president of the United States, that's the Executive Branch. He works in the Executive Branch. He should understand that. Everyone should understand that.

And the primary role of the vice president of the United States of America is to support the president of the United States of America, give that president his or her best judgment when sought, and as vice president, to preside over the Senate, only in a time when in fact there's a tie vote. The Constitution is explicit.

The only authority the vice president has from the legislative standpoint is the vote, only when there is a tie vote. He has no authority relative to the Congress. The idea he's part of the Legislative Branch is a bizarre notion invented by Cheney to aggrandize the power of a unitary executive and look where it has gotten us. It has been very dangerous.

Amen, Ride or Die Joe.
Amen.


Biden's Emotional Moment

A Preview of Sarah Palin's Debate Game Plan

From the hints that I have picked up on from the McCain camp, here is a glimpse of what I believe the Palin (Republican) VP debate strategy might be (nothing too unexpected).

She will likely be feisty

She will tout her exec. experience (lol)

She will appeal to those who respond to style over substance. She knows that she might struggle when it comes to command of the issues, so she will likely opt to compensate with distractions, and will gloss over facts & specifics with generalizations. The American public is just as clueless as Palin on many foreign policy issues...so viewers may not recognize all of her mistakes. The Republicans understand this... so they will opt for style.

She will hijack Obama's change message & co-opt it as if it was her own all along.

She may attempt to cast Biden as an old timer; a Washington insider who is part of the problem in government. This was one of the main problems that I had with Obama's decision to pick Biden. In many ways, it undermines his change mantra, as well as the perceived distance (ideologically) from Washington D.C. that he enjoyed. Republicans will attempt to exploit this contradiction, just as I suggested.

She may mention the low approval rating of Congress and will attempt to tie that negative perception to Joe Biden (and perhaps even Barack Obama).

Just as McCain has done, Palin will recreate herself in front of a national and international audience. She will cast herself as a Maverick who took on corruption and mismanagement in her own State (barely half true). She will repeat lies that have already been told and debunked....with the hope that Americans won't be paying attention - which unfortunately will probably be the case. The strategy of McCain/Palin seems to be to repeat lies & misinformation over and over again, with the hope that with repetition, voters will begin to believe the lie, even when the lie has been debunked. (the Debunkers never have the same size platform as the liar, so the facts won't reach everyone). This strategy will be at work tonight...watch as she lies about issues THAT HER CAMPAIGN KNOWS are untrue and THAT THEY KNOW have been debunked.

Don't be surprised if Palin is condescending she seems to be at her best when she is patronizing & condescending, just as she was at the Republican Convention.

She may try to bait Biden into a trap by being condescending. Republicans may try to illicit an angry response from Biden or a response that they can later frame as sexist or patronizing. This will help to paint Biden as a Bully.

She will attempt to cast herself as a fresh face, and as a regular everyday American who is looking out for the average Blue collar Middle Class American. Biden will be framed as an elitist New England Democrat. (This is how they will label him because he is well traveled, knows foreign leaders, etc).

Palin may make comments directed at women... as an appeal to women. Don't be surprised if she mentions Hillary Clinton and the glass ceiling.

Be prepared for an attack on Biden... regarding some item from his past that no one is expecting. There is no certainty that this would happen, but it should be seen as a possibility. Any politician with 35 years of experience probably has at least a small graveyard in his/her closet. Obama will also be fair game for Palin. And just about anything goes. McCain/Palin will do anything to win.

_______________________

In addition to the above strategy, Palin will also be tasked with remembering her lines. She will feel more pressure at this debate than she felt at the Republican Convention or in any of her previous debates when running for Governor. We know that under the added pressure of the national spotlight and when forced to talk about specifics, she can be rattled. If she gets rattled by the cameras, the crowd, the national spotlight, and the questioning... then all bets are off. This might cause her to forget her lines and lose her footing.

Another pitfall for Palin could be the strict format. The McCain camp put all sorts of restrictions of the debate process, including limits on response times, thinking that this would be helpful to Palin. But it might end up being more harmful. The time limitations will only add to the strain that Palin will be under. She will have less time to formulate her thoughts... this could end up making her shaky.

There will be no lifelines for Palin tonight... all of her lifelines have been used up.

Biden? Biden must maintain poise, must be a gentleman at all times, must avoid patronizing Palin, and must not fall into any of the traps that I mentioned.

The Post Debate Strategy

Spin, Spin, Spin, Spin, and more Spin.

The Republicans are already prepping for this. They have been lowering expectations all week. They have lowered expectations so much that even if Palin does a poor job it won't be so bad afterall. They are also attempting to invalidate the importance of the debate itself. One argument they may use is that Gwen Ifill is Pro-Democrat/Pro-Obama and therefore the debate is invalid (these seem to be the talking points).

Republicans may also attempt to label Biden as sexist and arrogant. There will be no shortage of excuses for Palin, if she gives a poor or mediocre performance.

__________________________

NPR Discussion About Past Debates...and Pitfalls that Biden May Face

Now That Vetting Has Taken Place, Palin's Star Is Fading

Favorable/Unfavorable Rating Track

Source of Graph: DailyKos from Research 2000 Polling Data


Now that the public (led by bloggers) and eventually the mainstream news media have put Sarah Palin through some sort of vetting process - although not complete- her star has begun to fade. (see other data from FiveThirtyEight, and Research 2000, ). Her image is falling so fast that it is starting to go through the floor. It appears that McCain may have gained all that he can from his rash VP choice. I wonder if the McCain team now regrets (behind the scenes) the crude political stunt pulled by their candidate.... or if anyone was against those who advised it (Rove is probably in the mix somewhere in all this). Will this be another case of McCain gambling and losing? It depends on what happens in November. There will be plenty of time to look back and evaluate what went right or wrong after election day. But Conservatives are beginning to go into panic mode.

Perhaps Palin can redeem herself and regain traction in the upcoming VP debate. The staging of the event seems to be aimed at bolstering her image, and showing that she can handle the job of VP...or of President. I am looking forward to the debate...even with the phony staging (strict rules, the staying on script approach, and short leash) that the Republicans fought for. The VP debate might be Palin's last chance to show that she can do the job.

I have noticed that she is good at following a set script...But she sometimes gets nervous... and gets rattled. Once she is rattled...once nervousness sets in, she begins to forget her lines. She is currently being coached and taken through crash courses on foreign policy... but that is only good if she can remember her lines...and remember issues surrounding certain topics, certain Countries, etc.

My guess is.... she won't be able to remember all of her lines or what line goes where. LOL The crash courses can only do so much. Cracks might start to form somewhere...and I hope Biden is able to sense it... (without coming off as arrogant).

But of course, all of this depends on what kinds of questions will be asked by Gwen Ifill. Will the questions be substantive and serious requiring substantive and serious answers, or will they be fluff questions designed to make Palin look good for Prime Time? That's what I really want to know... the first 5 minutes will determine whether or not I listen to the rest of the event. If it's fluff, I plan to change the radio station (unfortunately i'll be tuning in via radio).

The shit ain't subtle, and you ain't slick, John McCain

From The Daily Dish

Suspending The Palin Debate?
24 Sep 2008 06:45 pm

The other shoe drops. CNN reports:

McCain surrogate Sen. Lindsey Graham tells CNN the McCain campaign is proposing to the Presidential Debate Commission and the Obama camp that if there's no bailout deal by Friday, the first presidential debate should take the place of the VP debate, currently scheduled for next Thursday, October 2 in St. Louis.

In this scenario, the vice presidential debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin would be rescheduled for a date yet to be determined, and take place in Oxford, Mississippi, currently slated to be the site of the first presidential faceoff this Friday.

First, they already changed the format of the debate to make it EASIER for McCain's Choice.

Now, they want to change the date?


G-T-F-O-H

The CNN commentators nearly burst out laughing as one suggested that Obama/McCain switch debate dates with Biden/Palin, with the VP debate being this Friday.

Special Rules For VP Debate Designed to Help Palin

Exactly how does it benefit women when the VP candidate has to be given special treatment? I don't recall Hillary Clinton getting these special debate arrangements... because she was actually expected to know the issues.

If anything, this sets women back. I suspect, that this is exactly what women DIDN'T want to see happen... at least I would hope that a significant number of women would feel that way.

I was excited about the VP debate being held in St. Louis next month... but it appears that it will be just another dog and pony show. I suspected that something like this would happen, because Palin is such a lightweight. It didn't take Republicans long to take over the debate and impose their own rules.

But even with the new rules and with the cue cards, i'm pretty confident that Palin will still be beaten by Biden; unless he does something really stupid. But then again, Palin doesn't have to win... there is always a lower standard for Republicans. All she has to do is basically show up....and not stumble over too many questions. If she manages to do that, then the whole affair will be seen as a huge success by the McCain campaign... because they'll be able to spin her like a top... touting her foreign policy credentials, her poise under pressure, and other assorted nonsense. And of course these will also be the talking points for the media... they will likely spin it the same way.

Obama Starting to Wake Up and Fight Back - CNN Calls it "Negative"

Why is it that everytime Obama fights back, it is framed as being "negative", yet the Republicans get away with 2 weeks of the most vile, hateful, dishonest campaigning in years (the worst since at least Willie Horton), kicked off with the vitriol of their Convention in St. Paul, and they barely get called on it? Anyone else see how the coverage is lopsided in terms of how the two candidates are framed by the media? This is why I always try to point out that Obama is at a disadvantage just by default... because his message...his actions are seen through a media filter largely controlled by Republican/Conservative gatekeepers in the corporate TV news business.

Could it be that these folks aren't crazy about the idea of seeing Obama win the White House, because they may lose their preferred treatment and their tax breaks, etc? So therefore, they seem to go much lighter on Republicans...? Could that be it? I noticed this in the 2000, and 2004 Presidential races as well.

Why Is Obama Losing?

Here is an excellent article by Rabbi Michael Lerner on the current situation concerning Barack Obama and his election prospects. The article echoes an essay that I have written (but have not published) entitled "Why This Black Progressive Cannot Vote For Obama".

But in addition to Obama's missteps, I believe that Race will be a determining factor in this election, at least for a significant number of voters; enough voters that it may likely swing the election to McCain (barring some miracle by Obama).

Analysis of Last Weeks Events

Hear analysis of last weeks events from On Point Radio.

Voters (uninformed voters) are flocking to McCain....as I expected they would.
Palin - The Britney Spears of Politics- is the new star of the Campaign.

Listen Here

Obama/Biden Media Alert

Reminder: Barack Obama and Joe Biden sit down for what, I believe, is their first national TV interview as a ticket tonight on "60 Minutes."

Democratic National Convention - Wednesday Night Open Thread

Bill Clinton will be speaking tonight.

But, tonight is Vice-Presidential Nominee Joe Biden's Night.

Discuss people!!!



6:50 PM EST: OBAMA NOMINATED BY ACCLAMATION - He is the NOMINEE.

Dems In Denver: Opening Night Review

Twenty-two million Americans tuned in to the Democratic Convention last night, four million more than party attracted to the opening days in Boston four years ago. The opening day was filled with highs, lows, and unusual choices, but the night should ultimately be a successful one for Democrats.

The surprise appearance from Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, in the midst of a fight with cancer, sent a clear jolt of energy through Denver's Pepsi Center. One of his party's most indelible icons, Kennedy had jumped wholeheartedly behind Barack Obama in February, passing the torch to the young Illinois senator. "It's time for a new generation of leadership," he said then. His appearance Monday was in question just hours before he took the stage and Kennedy acknowledged those doubts in his opening. "Nothing is going to keep me away from this special gathering tonight."

While Kennedy's speech was the highlight of the night for many, a speech from former Iowa Republican Congressman Jim Leach was one of the low points. Leach, who represented Southeast Iowa for 30 years before a surprising defeat in 2006, failed to deliver red meat to the crowd as Zell Miller did for Republicans four years ago and as Joe Lieberman will likely do next week. Instead, the mild-mannered (and, quite frankly, boring) Leach talked of bipartisanship and praised the Democratic nominee. The speech fit nicely into Obama's call for unity, but it seems like a missed opportunity. Was Leach was the best Obamacon they could find?

There were a few other curious decisions as well. Jimmy Carter made only a brief appearance after a video tribute was shown in the convention hall. It was a surprisingly small part for an former president to play. Carter insisted today that the decision not to speak before the delegates was his decision, but I have to wonder if the Obama campaign would have welcomed him, having already drawn negative comparisons from his Republican rival. Carter famously refused vetting before his 2004 convention speech, one of the few to explicitly go after President Bush. Since, he has also drawn criticism for a number of statements about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Still, Carter's ex-presidency has been filled with humanitarian accomplishments and is a model for those who followed him in the Oval Office. His brief role last night is simply curious.

The prime time spotlight (and the attention of the broadcast networks) belonged to Michelle Obama and she made the most of it. Owing to her "proud of America" comments in February, the would-be First Lady is a controversial figure to many. Introduced by her brother Craig Robinson, who showed an unmistakable family resemblance, Michelle Obama's speech was as much a reintroduction of her as it was an introduction to her husband. Twenty minutes later, she had hit one out of the park. She talked of her own middle class upbringing, her relationship with Barack, and her children, exemplifying her own American story. Her goal was to connect with the hopes and struggles of the average voter and with visible emotion she did just that. Daughters Malia and Sasha joined her on the stage as their dad spoke briefly to the convention from Kansas City, Missouri. All in all, it was a powerful appearance and one that could only help her husband's campaign.

Not everyone was happy with the evening's events, however. Former Clinton strategist James Carville suggested his party had wasted their first night in Denver. "You haven't heard about Iraq or John McCain or George W. Bush--I haven't heard any of this. We are a country that is in a borderline recession, we are an 80 percent wrong-track country. Health care, energy--I haven't heard anything about gas prices," Carville said on CNN, calling for his party to become more aggressive. In 2004, John Kerry barred virtually any criticism of the Bush Administration--a decision he probably came to regret. "I guarantee on the first night of the Republican Convention, you're going to hear talk about Barack Obama, commander-in-chief, tax cuts, et cetera, et cetera."

While Carville is correct that the Democrats need to put the focus on the Republicans, Monday night was not the right venue for such attacks. Bush-bashing will certainly help unite a fractured party, but it would have been out of place coming from the candidate's wife. The Democrats will almost certainly use Tuesday and Wednesday to lay out their message against John McCain (Thursday will be about Obama's vision) and the effectiveness of those attacks could set the tone for the campaign's final seventy days. It seems the weight of that task will fall largely to Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in the days to come, as if those two needed any more pressure.

Cross-posted at Political Realm.

Democratic National Convention: A Schedule

The 2008 Convention: Americans Gathering To Change The Course Of A Nation

Program Schedule

Monday, August 25 – One Nation

Barack Obama’s story is an American story that reflects a life of struggle, opportunity and responsibility like those faced by Americans everyday. The opening night of the Convention will highlight Barack’s life story, his commitment to change, and the voices of Americans who are calling for a new direction for this country.

Monday’s headline prime-time speaker will be Michelle Obama.

Other Monday night speakers include:
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi; Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri; Barack Obama’s sister Maya Soetero-Ng and Craig Robinson, Michelle Obama’s older brother; Jerry Kellman, mentor and long-time friend of Barack Obama; Representative Jesse Jackson, Jr.; former Indiana Representative Lee Hamilton; Tom Balanoff, President of Illinois SEIU; Nancy Keenan, President of NARAL Pro-Choice America; NEA President Reg Weaver; AFT President Randi Weingarten; Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan; State Comptroller Dan Hynes; Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis; Chicago City Clerk Miguel del Valle; and Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.

Monday night will also feature a tribute to Senator Edward M. Kennedy.

Read more »

Obama/Biden '08 - Springfield Open Thread

Well, this is their first appearance together. What do you think? How is it going? Did they get a nice crowd? How do the families look together?

I’m about to leave for a family picnic, so I’m trusting Tivo and Mirror on America to keep me informed.