Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Iran and the new NIE

First, I applaud NBC Nightly News for trying to place the newest National Intelligence Estimate into context. I have spliced yesterday's Nightly News together with tonight's. I think that the picture of what's going begins to come into focus.

Secondly, so, what happened? How did this happen? Didn't we hear World War III rhetoric just recently? I find it very interesting that the intelligence community put this report out. You know that the Bush administration had to have fought to keep it under wraps.

I would like to add since Hillary Clinton was getting beaten up in an NPR debate that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is a terrorist organization. We have known this for more than 10 years (Read Richard Clarke's book Against All Enemies.) So, that isn't the question. The question is why do we label this organization now. It is fact that the IRG has supported several terrorist groups in the region. Why does the Senate in concert with the White House vote on this now? If it isn't to support Bush's case for "strong, aggressive" action then what was the purpose?


Finally, it is time to pull in the reigns on the Bush administration. Yes, there are problems in Iran. Yes, they have a leader who is crazy and playing to his base (the Iranian leader...who did you think that I was talking about). We, the American people, has an opportunity to get our foreign policy right. I think that the Intelligence Community has no desire to be the scapegoat again. This is why they forced the issue and wouldn't cave under pressure.

Update: There are those on the other side of the political spectrum who claim that Progressives are dancing in the streets. Stating that Progressives believe that Iran poses no threat to the region or to anyone. Wrong. There are those that hear whatever they want to hear. The key is we need diplomacy. Real diplomacy to get Iran to open its borders so that we can see what's inside. With the crazy man at the helm we have to assume that he means some of what he is saying. Hopefully, through engagement we can convince Iran that being a rouge nation is only fun on TV.

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From WaPo:

President Bush asserted today that Iran's nuclear program remains a danger to international security despite an assessment in a new U.S. intelligence report that the Tehran government stopped work four years ago on a suspected effort to build nuclear weapons.

In a White House news conference, Bush argued that Iran continues to develop the capability to enrich uranium and that this know-how ultimately could be transferred to a new clandestine weapons program.

"Look, Iran was dangerous," Bush said. "Iran is dangerous. And Iran will be dangerous if they have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon." (more...)

Video

2 comments:

Constructive Feedback said...

Excuse me ECThompson - you have it wrong.

I have heard several analysts say that there are 3 major components involved in creating a nuclear weapon:

1) Enriching Uranium (from which you can make nuclear power or go onto making a bomb)

2)Weaponizing the materials produced from #1

3) Developing the launch vehicle to deliver the nuclear warhead upon its intended target.

It seems that people with a certain ideological proclivity have jumped upon this news and are acting out in their typical "Blame America First" fashion rather than considering key points about IRAN.

1) Have YOU heard Iran say that THEY have stopped their production of a nuclear weapon?

2) The report said that #2 from above was stopped. Earlier this year Iran has lauding the fact that they have several hundred centrifuges on line now and thus they are beyond the point of return with regards to enriching uranium. (and look this news comes from Keith Olbermann's network and not Fox. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21666121/)

With respect to #3 - again they were bragging about their development of a missile that is capable of striking a long range target: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/03/31/world/main1460846.shtml
Again CBS - Not Fox News


I have to ask you - Aside from attempting to bash the evil Bush Administration what about this report gives YOU comfort that Iran is not continuing to develop a nuclear weapon? Have YOU heard them say that they have stopped?

Just last year the favorite talking point for the left was "Why did we invade Iraqi when North Korean and Iran have the nuclear weapons?" I see that some of your are more gullible than I thought.

Brian said...

Do you even have a clue about what is going on with Iran or are you pretending to know what's going on as you so often do here?

Do you know anything about the NPT, weapons proliferation, or nuclear technology?

The enriching of Uranium has various civilian uses and is allowed under the NPT. Iran has not violated the NPT with their use of uranium. Furthermore, international law does not prohibit enrichment. Working with uranium is standard practice for Countries seeking civilian, peaceful, industrial uses for enrichment. Countries do this all the time...and it gets little attention. The only reason that Iran became an issue was because the U.S. has been targeting Iran for over 25 years and because it is a Muslim State.

And regarding launch vehicles... Iran has had missiles for years. All sides have sabre rattled about the various weapons systems they hold. The U.S. routinely holds military exercises near Iranian waters. Could you imagine Iran or China holding military exercises near the U.S. Coast? Could you imagine what the reaction would be to that? So of course Iran is going to respond with its own public military exercises and proclamations about weapons capabilities. Israel also has intermediate range missiles... and probably holds nuclear weapons (most likely supplied by the U.S. or made with the help of the U.S.). Should countries attack Israel on that basis? Israel also openly talks about attacking Iran.

Furthermore...developing missiles/launch vehicles is the right of any Country. Iran has not violated international law on that front. Pakistan is developing missiles with longer and longer ranges, and they have their own very robust missile development program within the Country. A number of Countries have missile capabilities of various types and could thus pose a threat at some point in the future. Is that a license to attack or threaten to attack those Countries?

1) Have YOU heard Iran say that THEY have stopped their production of a nuclear weapon?

Why would they come out and tell the world that they stopped a weapons program when they have always stated (since 2004) that in this case, they were working on civilian nuclear energy? They have been telling the World that they did not currently have the kind of program that Bush & co. accused them of having.

And does the U.S. provide information about its classified strategic programs? Of course not. Even some of the programs that have long since ended remain secret.

It appears that Bush & Co. knew about this information on Iran for some time, but held onto it for political purposes.

Is Iran a threat? Probably so... but not the boogeyman that the U.S. makes it out to be. Iran is a complex country socially & politically. The U.S. doesn't want to do the hard work that is necessary to learn how to deal with Iran. Am I saying... go easy on Iran? No. But more sensible approaches are in order.

Bush & Co. has been ruling with fear for the past 7 years...and this fits right into a pattern with this group. They wanted to use Iran as a tool of fear for political benefit here at home, and they got caught.