King Abdullah of Jordan's ultimatum: peace now or it’s war next year

From The London Times:

King Abdullah of Jordan's ultimatum: peace now or it’s war next year
From The Times
May 11, 2009
by Richard Beeston and Michael Binyon in Amman

America is putting the final touches to a hugely ambitious peace plan for the Middle East, aimed at ending more than 60 years of conflict between Israel and the Arabs, according to Jordan’s King Abdullah, who is helping to bring the parties together.

The Obama Administration is pushing for a comprehensive peace agreement that would include settling Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians and its territorial disputes with Syria and Lebanon, King Abdullah II told The Times. Failure to reach agreement at this critical juncture would draw the world into a new Middle East war next year. “If we delay our peace negotiations, then there is going to be another conflict between Arabs or Muslims and Israel in the next 12-18 months,” the King said.

Details of the plan are likely to be thrashed out in a series of diplomatic moves this month. Chief among them is President Obama’s meeting with Binyamin Netanyahu, the right-wing Israeli Prime Minister, in Washington a week today. The initiative could form the centrepiece for Mr Obama’s much-anticipated address to the Muslim world in Cairo on June 4. A peace conference could then take place involving all the parties as early as July or August. Such an ambitious project has not been attempted since 1991, when George Bush senior’s Administration assembled all the parties for a peace conference in Madrid.

“What we are talking about is not Israelis and Palestinians sitting at the table, but Israelis sitting with Palestinians, Israelis sitting with Syrians, Israelis sitting with Lebanese,” said the King, who hatched the plan with Mr Obama in Washington last month. He added that, if Mr Obama did not make good his promise for peace, then his credibility would evaporate overnight.

Rest of article at link above.

With Netenyahu being elected in Israel, and America's unquestioned devotion to the 51st State, color me skeptical.

Ahmadinejad tells Stephanopoulos: I Accept Two State Solution

From The Israel Policy Forum

Ahmadinejad tells Stephanopoulos: I Accept Two State Solution (Full Transcript of Interview)
MJ Rosenberg
Washington Director of Policy Analysis,
Israel Policy Forum
Posted April 26, 2009 - 7:09am
Washington, April 26

This is big news. George Stephanopoulos interviews President Ahmadinejad on “This Week” today and the Iranian President tells him that if the Palestinians and Israelis come to terms, he will accept Israel. Here is the relevant passage.

STEPHANOPOULOS: "If the Palestinians sign an agreement with Israel, will Iran support it?"

AHMADINEJAD: "Whatever decision they take is fine with us. We are not going to determine anything. Whatever decision they take, we will support that. We think that this is the right of the Palestinian people, however we fully expect other states to do so as well: the U.S. administration, European governments. The right to determine their fate by the Palestinians should be respected by all of them."

Ahmadinejad’s statement is his reponse to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s demand that he will only engage in negotiations with the Palestinians if Iran’s anti-Israel stance and nuclear program are addressed first, an approach the Obama administration rejects. It believes that implementing the two-state solution must come first because resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will, in itself, help address the Iranian threat.

Ahmadinejad throws the ball back in Israel’s court. Make peace with the Palestinians and I’ll accept it, and you, too, he says.

This statement will strengthen Obama’s hand with Netanyahu. The neocons always want Ahmadinejad to play theiir game and promise to rain destruction on Israel. This time Ahmadinejad refused to play.

Obama’s approach seems to be making a differemce.

Possible Changes With Regards to American Policy and Our 51st State?

Hat tip:Miranda and Craig Hickman

Two articles of note in reference to our 51st State and American Politics.

From the Israel Policy Forum

Obama Loosens Conditions on Palestinian Aid
MJ RosenbergWashington Director of Policy Analysis, Israel Policy Forum Posted April 17, 2009 - 6:45pmCongressional Quarterly is reporting that President Obama is requesting that Congress amend a law that would end the flow of US aid to the Palestinian Authority if a Fatah-Hamas power sharing arrangement is established.

Under current law any Hamas involvement in the Palestinian Authority would end all US aid.

Obama's proposal (included in the 2009 supplemental appropriation) would still ban aid to Hamas or any group affiliated with it until it accepts international conditions but would permit aid to continue if the overall PA remained in full compliance with those conditions.

This would permit the establishment of a government of so-called "technocrats" to be established which could speak for the combined Fatah/Hamas government and still receive US aid.

"It is expected that such a power-sharing government would speak authoritatively for the entire Palestinian Authority government, including its ministries, agencies and instrumentalities," according to the report accompanying the Presidential request.

The new law would also permit aid to flow even to a Palestinian government that did not meet international conditions if the President determines that such aid is in the national interest.

This may be another sign of a shift in US policy. Prime Minister Netanyahu's representative has already visited key Hill offices to warn of the danger that US dollars could fall into Hamas hands and it can be expected that center-right and rightwing Jewish organizations will oppose this change.

Pro-Israel organizations that favor more vigorous US efforts to advance negotiations are likely to welcome this change and make sure Capitol Hill knows it.

Read more »

Hillary, It is Time to be Great!

Eight years ago, when many in the US thought that it really didn't matter who was president and that the country could run on automatic pilot, George Bush was elected. At the time, he was thought to have had the greatest foreign-policy team of all time. Colin Powell. Dick Cheney. Condoleezza Rice. Incredible credentials. Yet, after the last eight years, to describe President Bush's foreign-policy as being a disaster is simply being kind. He's made little or no progress in the Middle East. As a matter of fact, some may suggest at this point that his administration has actually taken the peace process backwards five or ten years.

On January 20th, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have to hit the ground running. The lack of American leadership is palpable around the world. Israel has pounded the Gaza Strip for the last four days. They did this in retaliation to multiple rocket attacks into southern Israel from the Gaza Strip. This is a typical scenario. Israel takes a pounding and then retaliates disproportionately. The retaliation inevitably causes an international outcry. Sometime soon thereafter, Israel stops the offensive and we go back to square one. Soon-to-be Secretary of State Hillary Clinton must break this cycle.



Personally, I think it is important that we support Israel. The Palestinians, though, are living in abhorrent conditions. Their standard of living must be raised. If you have something to live for, then you are less likely to want to turn yourself into a human bomb. Hillary Clinton must find the balance that has escaped George H. W. Bush, Jimmy Carter and her husband, Bill Clinton. She must find a way to get all the parties involved to begin the discussion and to find a solution to the problem. This means including Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. (Some of these Arab countries have treated the Palestinians like unwanted stepchildren.)

From a political standpoint, this is a huge time bomb. If Barack Obama spends a lot of political capital early in his presidency on trying to fix the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and can't find a solution, that will hurt some of his domestic agenda. On the other hand, we have seen what eight years of neglect does. On the surface, this seems to be a lose-lose proposition. But, as an optimist, I think that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will need to (and, with luck, will be able to) balance this with the many other crises around the world. We do need to defeat Al Qaeda. We do need to do better in Afghanistan and make it a functioning nation. We also need to help Pakistan, not only with its relationship to India, but also with its relationship to Afghanistan. We need to get out of Iraq and develop a presence in Africa. We need to bolster Africa's attempt to control some of its violence within its own continent (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda and Darfur for come to mind). As a nation, we cannot ignore the problems of South and Central America. In addition, the growing challenges of Asia, which include the vulnerability of some Asian countries to Al Qaeda, may be as daunting as any challenge that I've yet mentioned. I have to make a special mention of North Korea, of course, since it was an original member of the Axis of Evil.

If history shows us anything, it is two definitive paths which have not yet led to the settlement of this long conflict. The first path was taken by President Clinton, which was to wait to the end of his presidency then throw his whole weight behind the peace process. He, like Bush, was a lame duck and, because of that, could not get an agreement. Then there is President Bush's way... ignore the problem and hope it will go away, which doesn't work either. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton must choose a different path. It is time for Hillary Clinton to be great.

Civil War In Palestine & A Roundup of the Weeks Events

Fatah's Gaza Headquarters Being Leveled

I hinted several months ago that Palestine was headed for a Civil War between Hamas and Fatah, the two major factions now battling for political & military control. Hamas and Fatah now seem to be engaged in all out civil war... The two sides have been engaging in heavy battles in Gaza over the past two weeks, and it finally ended with Hamas militants routing Fatah. However Fatah and the Palestinian authority remain in control in the much larger West Bank. This is more bad news for Palestine, and reduces any hope for any kind of viable Palestinian State. It also raises the risk of a regional conflict. Any attacks on Israel from Gaza will be blamed on Syria and/or Iran as these two countries are seen by the West as being the main supporters and suppliers of the radical Hamas movement. This could lead to a wider conflict in the future.

The Palestinians are now split between President Abbas & his Fatah faction (seen by many as moderates) and the more Jihadist Hamas. Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, can expect more poverty and suffering under Hamas, due to sanctions. Hamas has set itself up for a big failure... because they must now deliver. They won't be able to do that without working with Abbas and Fatah, because President Abbas still controls the purse strings. But I don't think that they are really concerned about delivering for the people. That idea assumes that Hamas will honor democratic principles. It seems to me that they would be willing to rule by dictatorship and force their own brand of fundamentalism onto the Palestinian people. They might try it at least... but I am not so sure that the Palestinian people will go for that. But Hamas will be in no hurry to return control back to the legitimate internationally recognized Palestinian Authority. In fact, I think they may try to hold on to power for a long time and may not be willing to honor elections. But only time will tell for sure.

It also looks bad for the Palestinians because they are killing their own people. In doing so, it brings the whole Palestinian struggle into question. How can you call for peace, and expect the World to respect your cause when you are killing your own? That went through my head almost immediately when the new fighting began to flare up. It doesn't look good to the rest of the world, a world in which Palestine relies on for about half of its funding. With Hamas controlling Gaza, the region will continue to be a source of Islamic radicalism for the entire world, just as it has been for the last 40+ years.

But I think (and hope) Hamas' power will not extend beyond the Gaza strip.

Another strange twist to all of this is that you could actually see cooperation between Israel and Abbas.... as Israel will be interested in keeping the moderates in control.

But prepare for more ruthless attacks in Gaza by Israel (perhaps even with a wink and a nod from Fatah). The U.S. has already been funding and supplying one side in this civil war.... which is reminiscent of the proxy wars of the Cold War.... in this case it is a proxy war between the U.S. and Syria/Iran. Yet another civil war where the U.S. has been behind a lot of the wickedness from the beginning..... just like in Iraq. Part of the problems in Palestine stemmed from U.S. (and Israels) attempts to weaken the Palestinian authority. By sabotaging the Palestinian Authority, the U.S. unwittingly helped to popularize Hamas.... basically making it easy for them to gain a strong political foothold that they continue to have today. That's been one of the problems with arrogant, ignorant U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. doesn't understand the cultures, the people, the land, the religion, or the politics of the countries that it wants to bully. It's hard to defeat your enemies when you don't understand them. This is what led to the disaster in Iraq to a large degree. A lack of understanding of the people, the cultures, etc of other nations. Now the U.S. finds itself in one of the biggest fiasco's that it has ever been in. And now the maniacs in the White House are setting the stage for Iraq to become Supersized so to speak. Not satisfied with the disaster that they already have, the neo-conservatives seem to be on a path to spread the disaster to other parts of the Middle East. Iran is a top candidate.

But I am just as afraid that Pakistan may be next, with all of the internal problems there (a potentially unprecedented nightmare for obvious reasons). I have been trying not to think about a coup where Pervez Musharraf is taken out and radicals take control. But I have had nightmares about it.

Hear A Roundup of the Weeks Events

Listen to a Roundup of This Weeks Events From On Point Radio. Main Topics: The Middle East and The Continuing Justice Department Fiasco. Jack Beatty gives solid analysis as usual.

(Use RealPlayer Audio Option)

Other Related Links

Juan Cole has the latest on what is happening in Iraq