Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Decision to Attack Iran Has Probably Already Been Made
Remember the Gulf of Tonkin incident leading to an escalation of the War in Vietnam?
The U.S. is once again looking for an excuse to launch attacks on another country- this time it's Iran. CNN has just reported that "U.S. officials" believe that an attack in Karbala in recent days against U.S. forces, was carried out or supported by Iran. Here is the report from the NY Times. This seems to me to be more of a convenient excuse to trick the American public into yet another war.
In the past I have stated that I did not think that the U.S. would attack Iran anytime soon, because of the limited firepower of 2 U.S. Navy Carrier groups. But I am changing my mind on that. I think that an attack on Iran is more imminent than it has ever been.
I believe that the decision to attack Iran has already been made. We are now in the phase of "when and what excuse", rather than "if".
I believe that the White House has probably decided to limit the number of targets to a few. That would explain the fact that there are just 2 Aircraft Carriers in the Persian Gulf area. But yet again, these stupid white men (with no war experience) have not considered consequences, neither the predictable or the unintended. When attacking a country the size of Iran, you always have to beef up your forces, just in case....and it doesn't look like they have done that. It looks like they have decided to do this one "on the cheap" just like they did with Iraq.
But Iran has a substantial attack and counter-attack capability. They have a much stronger capability than Iraq had in 1990-91.
I don't know if the American public is ready for a war with Iran. Of course it wouldn't be a good adventure for the U.S. and the country is certainly not ready...and certainly doesn't need a war with Iran. But I meant from a psychological standpoint, I don't believe the public is ready for what they might see. The reason I say this is because the U.S. would probably suffer some considerable losses in any war with Iran. Iran could do serious damage to the U.S. Navy (and the U.S. Navy would probably lose some ships and some sailors).
The American public is so used to seeing its military defeat ememies quickly, that there is a romantacized mythical image of the armed forces, especially of the U.S. Navy and Air Force.... an image that says they are invincible.
Iran could also impact this country's economy by disrupting the flow of oil. This could triple the price of gas in the United States.
And we haven't even gotten to the other consequences....about how a war with Iran could spark a wider war that could bring in Israel, Russia, China, etc.
When I look at the prospect of a war with Iran (and all indications tell me that a war could begin at any time) I see no good reasons to start one. I only see bad outcomes.... No good ones. The negative impacts outweigh benefits by a ratio of probably 8 to 1. This is why I wonder what the hell the people in the White House are thinking by even contemplating this kind of madness. From a practical standpoint and from the standpoint of what is best for the U. S., the idea of war with Iran is suicidal. I often wonder what kind of government would terrorize its own people with this kind of nonsense. I feel more threatened by the people in Washington D.C. than by Al Qaeda at this point. Al Qaeda is minor compared to the stupid white men in Washington who are encouraging Al Qaeda, and who are not securing our borders and dragging their feet on Homeland Security.
So the rationale for attacking Iran MUST be driven by some crazed religious ideology. I guess God is speaking to these morons again and telling them to attack Iran, just like he told them to attack Iraq. This is the same dangerous, poisonous, irrational religious ideology that drives the Islamic Nazi's in Iran. We have the same religious nuts in our own country. This is why I often say that religious lunacy (of all stripes) is the biggest man made danger to civilization.
Go back and read some of my posts about the dangers of religious fanaticism, and why religion should be banned from politics. I warn of this over and over again.
Posted by Brian E. at 11:33 PM