Obama Wins Wisconsin & Hawaii - 10 in a row

WISCONSIN
With 99% Precincts Reporting:
Obama - 58.1%
Clinton -40.7%

HAWAII CAUCUS
With 100% Precincts Reporting:
Obama - 75.7%
Clinton - 23.6%


WISCONSIN

Looking at the CNN Exit Polls:

Men
Obama - 66%
Clinton - 32%

Women
Obama - 48%
Clinton - 51%

Obama won every age group except for 65 and older.
He tied Clinton with high school graduates, but won every other educational group.
He won every region except for Northwestern Wisconsin.
He beat her with every income group.

Party ID
Democrats
Obama - 51%
Clinton - 48%

Republican
Obama - 70%
Clinton - 30%

Independents
Obama - 62%
Clinton - 34%

Ethnicity
White
Obama - 52%
Clinton - 46%

Black
Obama -90%
Clinton -7%

Obama got more votes than McCain and Huckabee combined.

Overview of the Democratic Primary Race w/ schedule

Below is a schedule of the remaining Democratic Primary constests, including which way the States lean.

Pledged Delegate Count So Far (not including Superdelegates):

Obama: 1116

Clinton: 985

Remaining Schedule For The Democrats

February 19th (tonight)

Hawaii Caucus (toss up) Delegates have already been awarded
Wisconsin (toss up) 74 Pledged delegates at stake

March 4th

Ohio Primary (leans heavily Clinton) 141 Pledged delegates at stake
Texas- Hybrid Primary/Caucus (leans Clinton) 193 Pledged delegates at stake
Rhode Island Primary (leans Clinton) 21 Pledged delegates at stake
Vermont Primary (leans Clinton) 15 Pledged delegates at stake

March 8th

Wyoming Caucus (toss up) 12 Pledged delegates at stake

March 11th

Mississippi Primary (toss up, but looks good for Obama) 33 Pledged delegates at stake

April 22nd

Pennsylvania Primary (leans Clinton) 158 Pledged delegates at stake

May 3rd

Guam Caucus (toss up) 6 Pledged delegates at stake (9 total)

May 6th

Indiana Primary (no recent polling info, but looks good for Clinton) 72 Pledged delegates at stake

North Carolina Primary (leans Obama) 115 Pledged delegates at stake

May 13

West Virginia Primary (toss up, but I would say W.V. looks good for Clinton) 28 Pledged delegates at stake

May 20th

Kentucky Primary (no recent polling data, but looks good for Clinton) 51 Pledged delegates at stake

Oregon Primary (deep Blue Country.... strong deep progressive, & anti-war voters. Similar demographics as Washington State and Minnesota, both of which Obama has already won. So it has to look good for Obama). 52 Pledged delegates at stake

June 3rd

Montana Primary (toss up) 16 Pledged delegates at stake

South Dakota Primary (toss up) 15 Pledged delegates at stake

June 7th

Puerto Rico (toss up...but Obama needs to get down there to help sell his platform and to seal the deal) The 63 delegates from PR are typically awarded as a block, due to the complicated PR politics.

Note: The above outlook will change as I find more information. But things are setting up for a possible late comeback for Clinton. If a comeback materializes, will it be enough?

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General George Custer & Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton Draws Line In the Sand In Texas & Ohio - A Great Comeback Strategy or Custers Last Stand?

When & Where Will This Battle Royale Take Place?

Date: March 4th, 2008

Place: Ohio, Texas (and to a smaller degree, Vermont and Rhode Island).

What does Clinton have to do?

Not only does she have to win on March 4th, but she has to win big, especially in Texas and Ohio. She has to get well over 60% of the vote and crush Obama in all contests.

However, Texas is turning out to be a bit of a problem for Clinton in her comeback quest. Obama (by some miracle) has tightened the race in Texas. Texas was supposed to be her great firewall... But will March 4th turn out to resemble Custers Massacre at Little Big Horn for the Clinton camp? Just 5 days ago, Clinton was heard issuing the following challenge to Obama:

"To my opponent Mr. Obama..... meet me in Texas"

And Obama is answering the call.... with a louder voice than the Clinton camp expected. Did the Clinton camp miscalculate by including Texas in their "last stand", line in the sand strategy? I think they may have....and I will explain why later on. The Clinton camp went as far as saying (earlier this month) that a win in Texas and Ohio would mean that Obama should step out of the race. Is there are problem of over confidence on the part of the Clintons? Or abject arrogance?

The media is already helping Clinton lower expectations for March 4th, especially regarding Texas. The media is also setting up Wisconsin as a great opportunity for Clinton to come back. Even a marginal win for Clinton in Wisconsin, and later in Texas, will be be framed by the media as huge victories for Clinton. The corporate media seems desperate to keep Clinton (the media favorite) in the race.

Clinton is also hoping to get delegates from Florida and Michigan included in the final delegate count. Dirty politics? Of course. But nothing seems to be out of bounds for the Clintons. This seems to be standard operating procedure for them.

She will also run negative advertisements in all of the remaining States. She will attempt (again) to label Obama as "the Black candidate". She will attempt to label him as "all hat no Cattle"...a man with no substance and no experience.... someone who is not competent and not up for the job. She will scare voters by saying that they are "rolling the dice" with this Black guy. He will turn the White House into the Black House.... a den of sin. He will embarrass the Country.

Yes folks... you will see it all from the Clinton camp in the weeks to come.

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What does Obama have to do?

First of all, Obama has to do well tonight in Wisconsin and Hawaii. He has to at least match Clinton 1-1 in both States, although that would be seen as a big loss for Obama. But the race is all about delegates at this point. As I mentioned, even a marginal win by Clinton would be seen as a huge victory for her and a huge loss for him....that's just the way the biased media works. It wouldn't matter if the delegate advantage remains essentially the same. It's all about the media wanting to claim a victory for Clinton.

After tonight Obama has to somehow get out of March 4th, and April 22nd alive. He needs to pull more miracles in the coming months. To do this, he doesn't have to win... but he has to narrow the gap. Texas has built in advantages for Obama, with its hybrid Primary/Caucus system. It appears that he has narrowed the gap in Texas. He must also narrow the gap in Ohio and Pennsylvania. His performance tonight in Wisconsin could help him narrow the gap in Ohio. It is pretty clear that Clinton will gain delegates in the coming weeks. Obama has to keep Clinton's net delegate gain to an absolute minimum.

The problem for Obama from here on out is that he is dealing with an opponent who has turned completely negative, and is now in swiftboat (nuclear) mode. They are willing to do anything to win (or steal the election). Obama must watch his actions and the actions of his campaign very carefully. Clinton and her media allies are now attempting to take Obama out... TAKE HIM OUT. The Clinton tactics are reminiscent of the Republican stategy that was used against Senator John Kerry in 2004. Sort of a scorched earth policy.... nothing is safe. She will go after the Obama children if she can find an opening. They are already going after Michelle Obama with a vengeance.

Why Obama does not have to win Texas (below is the best explanation that I have seen).

Obama could lose Texas, but still do well in the delegate count...perhaps even winning more delegates, despite losing.

With Texas and Ohio coming up rapidly, we had been curiously deprived of polls from the Lone Star State. But two surveys out this morning confirm that Clinton is in good shape to win the state -- but will she manage to be ahead in the delegate count?

An IRV poll has Hillary Clinton ahead 49% to 41%, relying on a strong showing among Hispanics (63%).

A Rasmussen poll looks even better for Clinton, as she is ahead 54% to 38%. Without providing numbers, Rasmussen does say Clinton is ahead among Latinos, so Obama has not yet been able to contest her advantage there.

Update: As always, ARG comes out with a poll that looks like an outlier. The only institute that has Wisconsin going Clinton (+9), ARG is now the only one that has Texas leaning Obama in its new poll: 48% to 42%. Clinton is ahead among registered Dems and Obama gets all his lead among indies.

More than two weeks before Ohio and Texas, baseline polls in both show that Clinton could win them and survive to fight in Pennsylvania, and possibly even win them big. But the question also is whether she can close her pledged delegate deficit significantly, even on March 4th. And this is where Texas's absurdly complex delegate allocation system kicks in.

In a detailed study of the IRV poll, relying on their indications of regional breakdown, Burnt Orange Report explains that Clinton's 8% lead would still give Obama more delegates out of Texas! This is due in great part to the even/odd district particularities we were discussing in the run-up to Super Tuesday, but this time the odd/even district allocation is not due to chance, but to GOP gerrymandering. Let's embark on a quick overview of the Texas process:

(1) Of Texas's 193 pledged delegates, 126 are allocated through the primary. 64 are allocated through a caucus for which voters have to attend their "precinct conventions" after the polls close. The 64 delegates will not be allocated before the June state convention but they will reflect the wishes of the precinct convention (just like in most caucuses, like Iowa).

(2) Texas's delegates are allocated by state senate district, not by congressional district. And each district has a number of delegates according to the turnout in the last election. Now, the last election saw a very high turnout in African-American districts but very low in Hispanic ones which means that places where Obama is strong will award relatively more delegates than those that are Clinton strongholds. This is the first problem Clinton faces.

(3) The Texas GOP has gerrymandered the state Senate districts to put as many African-Americans in as few districts as possible (as this article from the Huffington Post explains. This will have major consequences on March 4th. Indeed, many districts only have 4 delegates, which will make it extremely difficult for Clinton to get any sort of delegate lead, since you need to get 62.5% to split those districts 3-1. So after votes are counted in most of the districts, the two candidates could still be close to a tie in delegates, even if Clinton is leading by double-digits in them! But the districts that award the most delegates, especially in Houston, have 7 or 8, and those are the places Obama is hoping to do well in, certainly getting more delegates and perhaps even a lead overall depending on the exact percentages.

Ultimately, will Texas cross the line in absurd delegate plots? In Nevada, Clinton had won by 6% but lost the delegate count 13-12. Obama had then argued that Clinton's support was too concentrated in the Vegas area whereas he had appealed statewide. If Clinton wins by 8% in Texas but loses the delegate count, while winning in most of the state, is that the point at which people start wondering whether the delegate system should be reformed? Can Clinton get some mileage out of it to try and undermine what Obama's pledged delegate count consists in? This would give her an ideal occasion to introduce the popular vote argument, a vote she right now trails in but could come ahead in if she wins Ohio and Texas.

Source

Prairie View A&M Students March for Voting Rights

Hat tip: Roland S. Martin (WVON-AM, 1690)

From The Houston Chronicle:

Thousands march in Prairie View for voting rights
By HELEN ERIKSEN
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle

PRAIRIE VIEW — More than 1,000 Prairie View A&M students turned out today to march in support of their voting rights.

The marchers said Prairie View student voting rights have been suppressed for decades in Waller County.

The protesters carried "Register to Vote" signs and wore black shirts with the slogan, "It is 2008 and we will vote".

"I was angry after registering to vote in the 2006 election only to be turned away at the voting booth," said sophomore Dee Dee Williams.

The march began at 9 a.m. as the protesters left the campus on the seven-mile journey to the Waller County Courthouse in Hempstead.

Students, local leaders, civil rights activists and elected officials took part in the march. Police estimated the total crowd at about 2,000 people..

"These are wonderful kids. They are making a statement, until they spoke up there was only one early voting place in the entire county. They spoke up but everyone is benefiting from what they are doing,'' said Prairie View Mayor Frank Johnson.

Last week, under pressure from the federal government, Waller County officials added three temporary polling places for early voting, ditching plans to open only one voting site in advance of the March 4 primary.

The Justice Department questioned the county's January decision to cut early-voting sites from a half dozen throughout the county to just one in Hempstead. The county's about-face came on the same day that critics announced a mass march to the polls next week.

Early voting begins today.

Waller County has faced numerous lawsuits involving voting rights in the past 30 years and remains under investigation by the Texas Attorney General's Office based on complaints by local black leaders. Those allegations, concerning the November 2006 general election, related to voting machine failures, inadequate staffing and long delays for voting results.

Good for them. I heard one of the young women organizing this on the radio this morning, and it was obvious that they had been targeted many times, but they were standing up TOGETHER this time as a community.

There's something about that picture that makes me mad and smile at the same time.

Obama Gaining Traction With Hispanics

According to Gallup:

Many credited Clinton's strong appeal to Hispanics for helping her win the important Feb. 5 California primary, and her support among this key group gives the campaign hope for a comeback victory in the March 4 Texas primary. But the tracking data suggest her support advantage among Hispanics may be eroding, at least on a national level. In the Feb. 5-9 data, Clinton led Obama by nearly 2-to-1, 63%-32%, among Hispanic Democratic voters.

In the most recent polling, the two are essentially tied among this constituency, with 50% preferring Obama and 46% Clinton.

He's made gains in other key constituencies as well. Interesting poll...check it out.

Clinton Targets PLEDGED Delegates

Hat tip: Politicalinaction.com

From Politico.com

Clinton targets pledged delegates
By: Roger Simon
Feb 19, 2008 05:48 AM EST

Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign intends to go after delegates whom Barack Obama has already won in the caucuses and primaries if she needs them to win the nomination.

This strategy was confirmed to me by a high-ranking Clinton official on Monday. And I am not talking about superdelegates, those 795 party big shots who are not pledged to anybody. I am talking about getting pledged delegates to switch sides.

Rest of article is HERE.

Why don't you mull over THAT bit of news, and form your own opinion about it. I know what my opinion is.

UPDATE:

The Clinton Campaign puts out this statement-

Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer is adamantly denying a report this morning in The Politico quoting an anonymous campaign official suggesting that the Clinton campaign will pursue Obama's pledged delegates. Singer sends me this:

We have not, are not and will not pursue the pledged delegates of Barack Obama. It's now time for the Obama campaign to be clear about their intentions.

I believe Roger Simon. Have no reason not to.

Clinton Camp Spreads ' Obama has a CULT' Memo

Hat Tip: a JJP reader

Leave it to the Brits to tell us THE TRUTH.

From the London Times:

Clinton’s camp has been circulating stories criticising the “cult” of Obama in the hope of portraying “Obamania” as a mass delusion. Media Matters, a watchdog organisation sympathetic to Clinton, compiled a report headlined, “Media figures call Obama supporters’ behaviour ‘creepy’, compare them to Hare Krishna and Charles Manson followers”.

It was forwarded by Sidney Blumenthal, a top Clinton adviser, to select reporters. The campaign entered a nasty phase last week with the determination of Clinton’s team to revive delegates from the “ghost” primaries of Michigan and Florida, by legal action if necessary.

Read the rest of the article detailing how the Clinton camp has decided on a ' bully' strategy. But, as I wrote down below, I had no doubt as from where the latest Anti-Obama Memos were originating.

Clinton Advisor Who Pushed to Have Delegates Stripped from Florida and Michigan, Now Wants Them Included

Even though he was one of the people who pushed for the removal of delegates from Florida and Michigan just a few months ago, Clinton operative Harold Ickes has now flip flopped and (because his candidate is struggling) wants to add the stripped delegates... AFTER the vote has already taken place under the sanctions.

The effort to steal the election has officially begun, as Clinton & Co. begin to lobby to have Michigan & Florida added to the process.... AFTER the candidates had agreed not to campaign in those States... and there was no real competition there. There is no doubt that the delegate issue had an impact on voter turnout in those two States, so I don't know how those delegates could be added in good conscience. Furthermore, Obama was not even on the ballot in Michigan.

However, Nancy Pelosi - one of the Democratic Party chiefs- believes that the nomination should not be decided based on delegates from Florida and Michigan.

See report from the Kansas City Star:

Clinton aide who backed sanctions against Florida and Michigan now wants to end them

WASHINGTON - A top adviser to Sen. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign voted for Democratic Party rules that stripped Michigan and Florida of their delegates.

Now Harold Ickes is arguing against the very penalty he helped pass.

In a conference call Saturday, Ickes said the Democratic National Committee should reconsider its sanctions on the two states, which held early contests in violation of party rules.

He said millions of voters in Michigan and Florida would be otherwise disenfranchised.

Ickes explained that his different position essentially is due to the different hats he wears as both a DNC member and a Clinton adviser in charge of delegate counting.

Clinton won the primary votes in Michigan and Florida, and now she wants those votes to count.

“We had promulgated rules,” Ickes said, “and those rules said the timing provision … provides for certain sanctions, automatic sanctions as a matter of fact, if a state such as Michigan or Florida violates those timing provisions.

“With respect to the stripping, I voted as a member of the Democratic National Committee. Those were our rules, and I felt I had an obligation to enforce them,” he said.

Clinton won after all the Democratic candidates agreed not to campaign in either state because they violated the party rules.

Clinton, who flew into Florida on primary eve but did not hold a public rally, argued that her rival, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, had violated the pledge by airing a national ad campaign that also showed on Florida television stations.

Kosovo Declares Independence From Serbia

As expected, the decision by Kosovo to declare independence is dividing the international community. Russia is fighting to block official recognition of the new State. Russia used its power in the UN to create an impasse on the issue of recognition. To get around this, nations have begun to recognize Kosovo (an American protectorate in the Balkans) one by one. Most EU Countries have chosen to recognize the breakaway Republic.


Moscow is concerned about Serbs who live in Kosovo who may suffer from the independence declaration. Moscow is also concerned about its own breakaway Republics in Western Russia declaring independence after being encouraged by Western support of Kosovo. Russia has always seen Kosovo independence as unnacceptable, and has expressed its willingness to fight to prevent its own breakaway regions from doing the same. Russia sees the U.S. and the EU as instigators and supporters of these independence efforts in Kosovo and with regions on its Western flank and Moscow sees this as a threat to Russian national interests.

This will certainly work to keep the new Cold War going. The U.S. fought two wars in the Balkans in the 1990's which led to this point. And it was the U.S./NATO attack on Yugoslavia in 1999 that spurred a resurgence of Cold War rhetoric between the U.S. and Russia. That is the point when relations began to deteriorate (again) between the two Countries.

The U.S. has thousands of troops in Kosovo as part of the NATO KFOR mission.

Hear Report from NPR

Pakistan Votes In Parliamentary Elections

Bhutto's PPP (Pakistan People's Party) Headed Towards Big Victory

Can Musharraf survive? The PPP vows to remove him.

By Zeeshan Haider

ISLAMABAD, Feb 19 (Reuters)- Early Pakistani election results show supporters of President Pervez Musharraf struggling, television stations reported on Tuesday.
Monday's election was relatively peaceful after a bloody campaign that will be remembered for the assassination of former prime minister and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto in a suicide attack on Dec. 27.

Overall trends were unlikely to become clear until later on Tuesday but small groups of opposition supporters celebrated in the streets of Lahore and Rawalpindi.
In a major blow for the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) which backs Musharraf, its president, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, a former prime minister, was defeated in his Punjab province constituency by a rival from Bhutto's party, television networks said, citing unofficial Election Commission tallies.
Several other senior PML members appeared to be losing their seats, television stations reported.

Musharraf said on Monday he would work with whoever won to build democracy in a country that has alternated between civilian and army rule throughout its 60-year history.

"This is the voice of the nation," Musharraf said on state-run Pakistan Television lat on Monday. "Everyone should accept the results, that includes myself."
A hostile parliament could try to remove Musharraf, who came to power as a general in a 1999 coup and emerged as a crucial Muslim ally of the United States in a "war on terror" that most Pakistanis think is Washington's, not theirs.
The death of Bhutto, the most progressive, Western-friendly politician in a Muslim nation rife with anti-American sentiment, raised concern about the stability of the nuclear-armed country.

Musharraf's popularity has plunged over the past year because of measures including his purge of the judiciary and the imposition of six weeks of emergency rule.
Many Pakistanis also blame him and his PML-led government for rising prices, food shortages and power cuts.

"If they lose, then I feel I'm winning," said Imtiaz Ali, a lawyer in the northwestern city of Peshawar, as he watched early results on television.
"I'm optimistic because the way people have voted shows that they want democracy, not dictatorship."

FEAR AND SYMPATHY
Fear kept many Pakistanis away from the polls, despite 80,000 troops backing up police.

A suicide bomb campaign waged by al Qaeda-inspired militants has added to a mounting sense of insecurity. More than 450 people have been killed in militant-related violence this year.
Election violence on Monday, though bad in places, was not as severe as many had feared.

At least 20 people were killed in poll-related violence, including 15 activists from Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP), her widower Asif Ali Zardari said.
A Pakistani poll watchdog group said there had been a few incidents of polling irregularities. Main opposition parties which had earlier warned of rigging by Musharraf's allies had no immediate comment on the fairness of the vote.
Sarwar Bari of the Free and Fair Election Network, an umbrella organisation of 40 non-governmental organisations, said initial estimates suggested a turnout of nearly 42 percent, almost matching that of the 2002 election.

A sympathy vote is expected to help Bhutto's PPP become the largest party in the 342-seat National Assembly, but most analysts doubt it can win a majority.
Analysts say Musharraf wants a coalition between the PPP and the PML.

An alliance between the PPP and the other main opposition party, led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif who Musharraf ousted in 1999, is what Musharraf dreads, as together they could force him out through impeachment or other ways.
By quitting as army chief in November to extend his presidency until 2012, Musharraf weakened ties with his greatest source of support.
Western allies hope for a stable Pakistan focused on fighting militancy, as do investors in a stock market that rose 40 percent last year but has shed about 3 percent since Bhutto's death.

Source- The Guardian

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In a related development... a top Pakistani official was overheard saying that the vote would be rigged.
I think Musharraf will have a hard time getting away with stealing this election. Polls have showed Bhutto's Party way ahead. Followed by Nawaz Sharif's supporters... with Musharraf backers coming in at a distant third place.